I am 99-percent convinced that there will be a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan. Political scientist Vladimir Lepekhin, Director of the EurAsEC Institute, told this to Armenian News-NEWS.am.
He explained that the presence of this Turkish military base will be systemic. According to him, this is connected not only with the fact that strengthening in Azerbaijan—in South Caucasus—is important for Turkey, but it is important for the latter also in terms of showing an offensive policy; moreover, a policy that bears fruit.
"For Turkey, which today pursues a line of unification of Turkic states under its auspices, including in the post-Soviet space, it is very important to strengthen its influence in the countries of Central Asia, as well as in the Caucasus, including the North Caucasus," Lepekhin said.
Therefore, any step that shows the strength of Turkey and the weakness of Russia is of fundamental importance for Ankara, the analyst added.
"I believe there will be no direct reaction in Russia to the emergence of a Turkish [military] base in Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, Moscow has not developed a vector aimed at counteracting Turkish expansion. On the contrary, we often see uncoordinated and illogical actions by Russia towards Turkey. Apparently, it is connected with shared economic interests—transportation of [natural] gas, construction of a nuclear power plant, etc. The influence of Turkish corporations which have strengthened in Russia leads to the fact that Russia does not have a clearly expressed and tough position on Turkish expansion toward the Caucasus and Central Asia. However, it should be noted that this risk is gradually being acknowledged," the political scientist added.
On May 15, the Presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev, had signed the "Shushi Declaration," after which Erdogan had not ruled out the establishment of a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan.