We were quite surprised that the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won the elections in June with over 50 percent support after a war he lost to Azerbaijan, a Turkish official told Middle East Eye, speaking on condition of anonymity, Middle East Eye reported.

“His election encouraged us to talk to the Armenian government about a normalisation because he now has a strong mandate and his popularity indicates the Armenian people also want a change,” the Turkish official added.  

Pashinyan has repeatedly acknowledged his interest in opening the border with Turkey and beginning a normalization process. In the summer, Ankara attempted to make some gestures to the Armenians but was unable to succeed due to “some unexpected” developments, Turkish officials said. 

After consultations with the Azerbaijani government in the autumn, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began publicly calling for a three-plus-three platform that consists of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, Georgia, Iran and Armenia for a complete regional reconciliation. Meanwhile, Ankara started direct outreach to Yerevan. 

Now that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has largely been resolved for Azerbaijan through its military conquest, the Turkish officials are confident that a resolution is more than likely. 

Turkish officials say the biggest difference is that both sides aren’t trying to have a complete reconciliation deal as they did in 2009.

“This time we are only focussing on normalisation steps. And we plan to take it gradually, a step-by-step approach based on mutual trust and progress,” the Turkish official said. "The dispute on how to name the killing of the Armenian citizens in 1915 [i.e., the Armenian Genocide] or other issues aren't on our agenda." 

Turkish officials believe normalization between Turkey and Armenia will serve the broader security and stability in the region.

Officials say there are more reasons to normalize relations with Armenia than not, and believe won't hinder the process.

However, Turkish officials are concerned that the Armenian diaspora in the United States and France could undermine normalization by conducting a public campaign in Armenia and using its political capital.

“We told our western friends, including the Americans, to help us to prevent possible provocations by the diaspora,” the second official said.

Turkish officials also mention that the reconciliation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues to be important to maintain the Turkish-Armenian talks. 

“We cannot say that any possible armed clashes between both sides wouldn't have an impact on our diplomatic talks,” the first Turkish official said. “However, our track is separate and has its own course."