Freedom House has published its Nations in Transit 2022 report, which reflects on Armenia, too.
“This year, for the first time in the 21st century, the prevailing form of governance in the Nations in Transit region is the hybrid regime. Four democracies have fallen into this gray zone since the unbroken period of democratic decline began in 2004: Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. During the same period, three authoritarian regimes made democratic strides and joined the ranks of hybrid regimes: Moldova, Kosovo, and now Armenia,” as per the essays on this report.
“The countries that have moved from authoritarian to hybrid forms of governance present a somewhat more promising picture, though they still fall short of democratic standards. In Armenia, for example, citizens used a protest movement in 2018 and a series of competitive elections, most recently in 2021, to decisively end the Republican Party’s multidecade reign. The incumbents were replaced with a new generation of politicians who, despite notable flaws, possess a basic commitment to democracy and the public interest,” the essays added.
“Back in 2002, scholar Thomas Carothers argued that most of the “postcommunist world” had already found itself in the “middle ground between full-fledged democracy and outright dictatorship.” Going by Nations in Transit data, however, this middle ground only became the region’s predominant political condition last year, with Armenia’s reclassification as a hybrid regime,” the essays noted.
“During this period, Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia flirted with liberal democracy, while Armenia and Moldova weathered authoritarian episodes, but all returned to hybridity by 2021. A total of 11 countries are currently categorized as hybrid regimes in Nations in Transit,” the essays said.
“Instead, advocates for genuine democratic rule must draw strength from a new generation of politicians. It is no coincidence that recent electoral breakthroughs in the Nations in Transit region were powered by new parties like Armenia’s Civil Contract, Moldova’s Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), and Ukraine’s Servant of the People; none of these parties are even a decade old,” the essays stated.
“One-party dominance is typified by so-called “legislative turbo mode,” as seen in Ukraine and elsewhere. Here, an insurgent party like Servant of the People rides an antiestablishment wave and earns a parliamentary majority or supermajority only to govern adventurously, without meaningful opposition or civil society input. To some extent, this behavior is also on display in Armenia and Moldova, both of which feature postauthoritarian single party-dominated parliaments,” as per the essays.
“Lastly, as hybrid regimes proliferate in this region, so have “firewall” elements of civil society that serve as a last “layer of accountability” where antidemocratic actors have warped—but not dismantled—the crucial elements of democracy. Such “firewalls” often coalesce in countries where a single ruling party governs in the absence of meaningful legislative scrutiny. For example, in Armenia, local civil society groups were able to prevent the ruling party from pushing through a bill that would have placed its Human Rights Defender’s Office under greater government control,” the essays said.
“Ilham Aliyev succeeded his father as president of Azerbaijan in 2003, and its already low score in Nations in Transit has fallen by half since then, as the regime moved to crush opposition parties, independent media, and civic activism. In 2020, Aliyev launched a military offensive against Armenian forces in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, killing thousands of people and displacing many more. The conflict, which seriously destabilized the region’s security arrangements, also yielded territorial gains for Baku, bolstered the president’s political position, and provided a pretext for further smothering of free expression. In this repressive environment, persistent social problems have continued to grow worse,” the essays said.
