The situation in the South Caucasus is volatile, large-scale Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises are being held—particularly in Turkey, in Nakhchivan, near the Lachin corridor—Russia-based analyst and Iranian studies specialist Karine Gevorgyan told Armenian

"These military exercises have quite a lot of objectives and can easily turn into tension and a new armed conflict in the region. Judging by what military exercises are being conducted, as far as I understand, they are really preparing an operation to occupy that part of the territory adjacent to the border with Iran. This is a ‘red line’ for Tehran (…). In addition, the Iranian foreign ministry stated in a clear text that it is against the encroachments on the territorial integrity of Armenia. (…). Nevertheless, there is a concentration of troops and an increase of the contingent in this region," the analyst said.

"[But] the Iranians are not ‘sleeping’ either. They are monitoring the tense situation, as it will contribute to the growth of separatist sentiments in the Azerbaijani-populated part of Iran—and which Tehran really does not like," Gevorgyan added, in particular.