The risk of recession in the eurozone has reached its highest level since November 2020, as energy shortages threaten to further boost already record inflation, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The likelihood of output cuts for two straight quarters rose to 60 percent from 45 percent in the previous survey and from 20 percent before the war in Ukraine. Germany, the EU's largest economy, will plunge into stagnation as early as this quarter.
Inflation is now expected to average nearly 8% in 2022, about four times the European Central Bank's target, and 4% next year. However, respondents still believe it will slow to the 2% target by 2024.
Economists expect the ECB to raise interest rates by half a point in September. This will bring the deposit rate to 1% by the end of the year and is expected to rise by a quarter point next March.