Analysts at the Danish Saxo Bank presented a forecast of ten shocking predictions for 2023.
According to the director of investments Saxo Bank Stin Jakobsen, the current forecast disputes any assumptions about the return to the pre-pandemic inflation-free dynamics. This is impossible because we have entered the stage of a war economy where every major power in the world is trying to strengthen its national security on all fronts, be it military, supply chains, energy security or even financial security.
In its previous forecast, the bank warned that in 2022 there would be a new round of cold war.
Danish Bank Analysts concluded that the fighting and escalating conflict in Ukraine had brought back the scale of the war economy - and on a scale not seen since 1945.
The first shocking prediction is Europe's creation of a unified military, not only to strengthen its defensive capabilities, but also in an effort to rely less on the United States.
In 2023, it will become clearer that Europe needs to get its defensive capabilities in order and rely less on increasingly erratic political cycles in the United States that increase the risk that the United States may renege on its previous commitments. All EU members will agree to begin building a pan-European armed force by 2028 that will be fully and independently responsible for security on land, water, air and outer space. According to Saxo Bank analysts, the EU will allocate €10 trillion over the next 20 years.
The second prediction is that Britain may abandon Brexit in 2023, with this issue to be resolved through a referendum. Analysts predicted that the Labour Party could come to power in Britain in the second half of 2023, which would initiate a referendum.
According to forecasts, a political upheaval could also await France. Against the backdrop of the growing influence of leftist forces, on the one hand, and rightist forces led by Marine Le Pen, on the other, President Macron will suddenly announce his resignation.
However, it is not ruled out that Macron may leave big politics only temporarily, returning to the forefront, just as Charles de Gaulle did in 1958.
In addition, Saxo Bank analysts believe that the challenges of the "war economy" will be felt not only in politics, but also in the economy. Against the backdrop of rising energy prices, leading U.S. technology companies and "billionaire technophiles" will create a multi-billion dollar project aimed at exploring new opportunities in the energy sector.
The Danish bank believes that inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability will continue to have an impact not only on the global economy but also on the financial market. Against this backdrop governments will adopt a more conservative policy, reducing investments in more complex financial instruments and invest in traditional assets such as gold. Increased demand for the metal in 2023, according to Saxo Bank, the price will rise from the current $1,800 per ounce to $3,000.
Another Saxo Bank prediction for 2023 is that at least one country will decide to abandon meat production.
Looking at the energy shock of 2022, many believe that countries will renege on their commitments to fight climate change, says Saxo Bank analyst.
However, this cannot be fully accepted, especially in the case of Europe. The fight against climate change applies not only to the energy sector, but also to the work of the food industry. Some analysts believe that to meet zero-carbon goals by 2050, meat consumption must be reduced to an average of 24 kilograms per person per year - now, according to OECD calculations, it is about 70 kilograms per year.
Saxo Bank analysts conclude that next year at least one country in the world will decide to take the lead in combating climate change and introduce higher taxes on meat production from 2025, and by 2030 will completely abandon domestic meat production, developing technology and production of plant analogues, which is more humane and gives less greenhouse emissions.