Domestic policy

The differences between two coalition forces — Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) led y RA President Serzh Sargsyan and Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) led by the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan – still remain palpable. PAP representatives are obviously the originators of the backstage activities in the pro-government camp – their statements by no means facilitate the settling of differences.

The “novelty” is the recent persistent claims by some of the PAP members concerning alleged political cooperation between the RPA and the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan. By “cooperation” the PAP means the ANC’s refusal to hold actions of protest against the Armenian-Turkish protocols and the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. On the other hand, the propaganda originators turn a blind eye to the fact that Ter-Petrosyan is only keeping his promise: the Armenian authorities remain “face to face” with external pressure unless they release the imprisoned Opposition members.

PAP representatives’ more active attempts to play the card of cooperation between the principal ruling party and its opposition counterpart are more like a response to the “offensive policy” pursued by the RPA leader Serzg Sargsyan, who has lately taken drastic measures to consolidate the chain of command, with the RPA being the backbone. If the present tendencies in the pro-government camp get stronger, the ex-president Robert Kocharyan’s supporters may intensify their attempts to rock the boat.

This week the new-fledged constructive Opposition, Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) and Heritage Party, as well as a number of small parties, has reminded the public of its existence. At their meeting the leaders and active member adopted a statement calling on the RA Constitutional Court to return a verdict confirming the unconstitutionality of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. The demand is easy to understand: unable to organize mass actions of protest, the parties are simulating activity, advancing initiatives that can never be developed.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process

This week has been marked by intensive talks between the Armenian and

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers, with the international mediators’ participation, in Athens, Greece. Although no information on any results is available now, the impression about rapid progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has been maintained. The statements made by the sides are more and more like attempts to persuade the opposite side into more substantial concessions, to say nothing of Azerbaijan’s regular bellicose statements.

The talks over the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were held as part of the conference of the OSCE Foreign Ministers’ Council. Higher-level international mediation proved to be their distinctive feature, which was noticed as long ago as this summer, during the Aquila Summit: the OSCE Minks Group Co-Chairs’ function turned into a purely technical one, while the Russian and French Foreign Ministers, as well as high-ranking officials of the U.S. Department of State, “took up the reins” in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner’s somewhat strange behavior during the Armenian-Azerbaijani talks attracted attention – he made a number of contradictory statements. The most significant of them was his unexpected appeal to both the sides for committing their agreements to paper. This suggests that, at a certain moment, the Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs were very close to signing an important document, may be, a framework agreement on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the basis of what is known as the Madrid Principles. Mr. Kouchner must have been so much inspired by the developments that he expressed a wish that the agreements be committed to paper. Later, the developments may have followed a course similar to what was going on on the threshold of the signing ceremony of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich on October 10, 2009. At the last moment disagreements must have cropped up to prevent the sides from signing a document. As a result, in making further statements the French Foreign Minister “put off” the settlement of the conflict for several months and sounded far less optimistic. We cannot claim the situation developed as described above, but this argument sounds rather convincing in the context of the statement made.

Of no less interest are the statements made by the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers, Edward Nalbandian and Elmar Mammadyarov, themselves. By tradition, the Azeri FM made a regular statement on the need for vacating the “occupied” territories aimed at calming down the Azerbaijani public, but his forecasts about further negotiation process are of greater interest. Speaking of the tremendous work to be carried out next year, Minister Mammadyarov meant a final peace treaty, rather than an agreement on the fundamental settlement principles, which is evidence of relative progress in the negotiations. Incidentally, it was the top-ranking Azeri official’s first statement on a peace treaty.

Another significant event in the Athens talks was that the nations’ right to self-determination as an international legal norm was enshrined in the statements with the same “status” as the principle of territorial integrity. The joint statement confirmed the determination to carry out active work to settle the remaining issues, particularly reach an agreement on the principles of non-use of force and menace of force, territorial integrity and nations’ equal right to self-determination, all of which are enshrined in the Helsinki final act.

Of course, the Azerbaijani authorities may issue a new statement that the Nagorno-Karabakh people can exercise its right to self-determination within Azerbaijan’s borders. However, statements of this kind intended for Azerbaijani public may be made before the upcoming signing of an agreement on the basic principles, which, according to all the information available, will certainly fix the terms of referendum on the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Recurrent manifestations of Azerbaijan’s militaristic policy are worthy of note, as, at any moment, they may bring all the efforts toward a peaceful settlement to nought. It may turn out so should any of the geopolitical players cancel the previous agreements with the others and exert efforts to thwart the negotiations by inciting official Baku to new military provocations. The latest recurrence is the official reports on the output of military equipment in Azerbaijan. AzerTAG reported that this year Azerbaijan’s defense industry has manufactured military equipment and ammunition four times as much as last year. The information was made public by none other than Minister of Defense Industry Yaver Jamalov.

Economy and social life

This week RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan has made all the Armenian citizens happy. The Armenian Government has at last decided to “reform” the situation in the country. For years, the New Year holidays have lasted from December 31 of the previous year to January 2 of the following year. On January 3, an official workday, peoples had to go to work just to put in an appearance. At the Government’s sitting, the Armenian Premier noted that the present Law on Holidays and Memorable Dates does not allow the citizens to plan their winter holidays. Amendments to the law will radically change the situation. Armenian citizens are now glad to know that January 11, 2010, will be the first workday of the coming year. Let us hope that employers will not force their employees to work during the holidays without paying extra for it.

Meanwhile the current problems have yet to be resolved or, at least, dealt with. At his meeting with the newly appointed Georgian Ambassador to Armenia Grigory Tabatadze, The Armenian Premier addressed the reopening of the Upper Lars checkpoint. He stressed that the reopening will have a positive impact on the regional economy and enhance Georgia’s role as a transit state. However, despite the Armenian authorities’ appeal, Moscow and Tbilisi are only making hollow promises.

The nuclear reactor to be installed at the Armenian nuclear-power station will be produced in Russia. At its sitting on December 3, the RA Government approved a draft resolution establishing a closed corporation to carry out the construction of a new nuclear-power plant in Armenia. Under the resolution, the Armenian side and the AtomStroyEksport (AtomConstructionExport) Company will establish a joint venture (CJSC) with an authorized capital of 60m AMD (U.S. $155,000). RA Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan stated that the surveys conducted by the Warley Parsons Company will serve as a basis for a decision on installation of the Russian nuclear reactor with a capacity of 1,060 MW and operating life of 60 years. Armenian side’s share will be held by the RA Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. It is noteworthy that the Armenian Premier did not even conceal the political reasons for the economic decision.