The prospects for the launch of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project are bleak against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict. Mikhail Kalugin, Director of the Fourth CIS Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Russia, stated this in an interview with TASS.

“A number of experts believe that the prospects for the launch of the ‘Trump Route’ against the backdrop of the Iranian-American conflict are bleak. It is noted that, in addition to Iran’s negative perception of the US presence on its northern borders, American control over the route from Central Asia to Europe, of which the ‘Trump Route’ should become a part, may also cause distrust among Asian partners. And without Chinese and Russian cargo, it will be extremely difficult to recoup investments in the project,” Kalugin noted.

According to him, there are also a number of objective factors in this matter that need to be taken into account. “These are: the presence of Russian border guards on the Armenian-Iranian border, the need to build a railway line of Russian standard for its seamless connection with the Azerbaijani line, the concession of the South Caucasus Railway [company] operating until 2038 for the management of the Armenian railway network, the inclusion of the territory of Armenia in the single customs territory of the EAEU,” the Russian diplomat continued.

In general, the project, as a transit route connecting Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave through the south of Armenia, did not arise in a vacuum, Kalugin emphasized. “Its emergence was preceded by two years of hard work within the framework of the Russia-Azerbaijan-Armenia format; namely, the work of the trilateral working group co-chaired by the deputy prime ministers [of the three countries]. Back in 2023, we were very close to the launch of the so-called ‘Meghri route,’ which was supposed to not only ensure transit through the south of Armenia to Nakhchivan, but also, in fact, bring the Armenian and Azerbaijani railways into a ring,” Kalugin added. “This is exactly what Armenia is now trying to achieve with such great difficulty, relying on the ‘Trump route.’ But the problem is that the Armenian-American initiative, unlike the ‘Meghri route,’ does not automatically envisage a full connection of the Armenian and Azerbaijani railway infrastructures. It is not our fault that Yerevan deliberately froze the work of the trilateral working group in 2023.”