Domestic policy

This week has seen interesting developments involving the parliamentary factions of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP): almost 20 of the Parliament members representing the parties forming the ruling coalition put their signatures to a petition for the release of their former colleague Sasun Mikaelyan. He was sentenced to eight years of imprisonment on a charge of organizing riots during the post-election period last year and of illegal possession of weapons. Mikaelyan was recently taken to hospital and operated on. Most of the signers are either Karabakh war veterans or businessmen. The petition caused a rather serious confusion within the ruling coalition. The opposition press immediately reported that the signers were summoned to the RA Presidential Administration and tongue-lashed. As regards the RPA’s official position, the party leaders referred to the lack of legal underpinnings for dealing with the matter. In any case, the fact that a number of MPs representing the principal ruling parties signed the aforementioned document can only be welcomed as showing signs of political culture, when narrow party interests pass into the background. So the fuss kicked up over this by the two political camps was excessive.

The conflict within the ranks of the Social-Democratic Party Hnchakyan (SDPH) is developing. The disagreements between the SDPH officials in Armenia and the SDPH leaders have recently developed into open confrontation. After two members of the SDPH Board in Armenia and some representatives of SDPH regional chapters issued a joint statement, SDPH Chairwoman in Armenia Lyudmila Harutyunyan accused SDPH Chairman Sedrak Achemyan of being in collusion with the Armenian authorities. According to her, Achemyan is pursuing a divisive policy, trying to cause the party to withdraw from the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan. She also stressed that most of the political forces that signed a statement on a special congress to pass a vote of no confidence in the SDPH Chairwoman in Armenia were dissolved long ago or never existed at all. Considering the fact that the SDPH congress was scheduled for January 9, 2010, the following supposition seems to be most reasonable: the opponents of the party’s “opposition policy” and of its main champion Lyudmila Harutyunyan came to realize they are in minority and can hardly hope for success at the January 9 congress. That is the reason for their “offensive” and attempts to simulate a congress with the authorities’ assistance and elect new leaders. A closed congress in Tsakhkadzor, where the opponents of Lyudmila Harutyunyan elected new leaders, corroborated this supposition: no one ever knew who was present at the congress and whether those people were party members or not. It is difficult to forecast the end and which party will come off winner. One thing that can be said is that the developments are part of the continuous attempts to form a new political force from the traditional national parties, which would be loyal to the Armenian authorities. As regards Lyudmila Harutyunyan’s radical position, it is a serious obstacle to the political project.

The participation of the Marxist Party of Armenia (MPA) — with its nearly only member, Secretary General David Hakobyan, who is famous for his eccentric behavior – in the ANC is clear now. The whole story resembles a tragicomedy: Hakobyan used to make statements which had nothing in common with the ANC’s official position. Thus, the left-wing ANC members proved to be right – they warmed Levon Ter-Petrosyan that admitting the “chief Marxist” to the ANC would only be a headache for him. The problem is that the ANC’s Regulations do not provide for the exclusion of parties or public organizations. However, David Hakobyan “gave a present” to the ANC and, seeking “official registration” of his dissociation from the ANC over the recent months, stated that the MPA is leaving the opposition bloc.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

This week a Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentary delegation has visited Yerevan. Top-ranking officials made a number of most important statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh process. They reaffirmed the Armenian side’s readiness for a peaceful settlement of the conflict by means of mutual, but painful, concessions.

At his meeting with the Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentarians, RA President Serzh Sargsyan expressed the confidence that a pragmatic and fair solution to the problem will be found. “We have repeatedly stated that such solutions must be found as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, which will not cause new deportation or ethnic cleansing. Solutions are available, and the only thing for people to do is to see them, differentiate dreams from reality, fair solutions from ambitious ones. I am sure that time will leave no alternative,” the Armenian leader said. An interesting detail, however, was overlooked by many: President Sargsyan’s appeal was obviously intended for two antagonist addressees. His statement on the necessity for a realistic position at the negotiations was first of all intended for the Azerbaijani authorities, which are in the habit of making bellicose statements capable of thwarting the peace process. It is obvious for all the mediators, key geopolitical players, that it is the Azeri authorities’ position that remains the only obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement. The second addressee of Serzh Sargsyan’s message is the Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentarians. The Armenian President must have pointed out the non-constructive position assumed by some political forces in Nagorno-Karabakh – the unacceptability of any territorial concessions to Azerbaijan, especially concessions involving the security zone round the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). President Sargsyan also addressed the NKR’s participation in the negotiations. According to him, the negotiations will be crowned with success provided Nagorno-Karabakh is immediately involved in them. Thus the Armenian leader once more showed his dissociation from his predecessor Robert Kocharyan’s policy, which resulted in the NKR being ousted from the negotiation process.

During the Nagorno-Karabakh delegation’s visit to Yerevan, the sides exchanged views on the details not available to the public. Of note is, however, the constructive and even optimistic opinion voiced by Speaker of the NKR Parliament Ashot Ghulyan. “The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is actually at its active stage. Certain agreements seem more likely to be reached. On the other hand, the issue of NKR’s full-scale participation in the negotiations has not yet been specified. This is of fundamental importance, as it is only the NKR people’s consent that is a guarantee of executing final decisions,” Ghulyan said. It was for the first time that a top-ranking NKR official expressed cautious, but healthy, optimism.

Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev is hardly “running the risk of” enjoying good health, especially mental health. It cannot be helped: that person imagines he is a parrot and, at all of his meetings, including the ones with representatives of states that have nothing in common with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, is incessantly speaking of the inevitability of military operations if the negotiations fail. Of course, he finds it difficult to say how much of its territory Azerbaijan will lose is case hostilities resume. The Armenian side hardly responds to the Azeri Minister’s statements, and it is right! However, Safar Abiyev’s persistence makes his Armenian counterpart respond from time to time. “The threats to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in a military way issued by the Azerbaijani President and other top-ranking officials do not mean anything at all, as those planning a war do not warn about it,” RA Minister of Defense Seiran Ohanyan told NEWS.am. “I do not think the resumption of military operations by Azerbaijan is likely, and our surveys confirm this. Azerbaijan is not ready for war now, but we, the military, must be always ready,” Ohanyan said.

In his interview with Azeri media outlets, Andrzej Kasprzyk, Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, made interesting comments on the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ latest visit to the region. According to him, the mediators were unable to visit Yerevan for lack of time. He pointed out that the place of the next Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting has not yet been specified. It was not the first time that international mediators had stated, to put it mildly, unconvincing reasons for their not visiting one of the countries of the region. The most absurd was the reason for their not visiting Stepanakert – bad weather. As regards the true reasons why the OSCE Minks Group Co-Chairs visited Azerbaijan alone, they were well aware of the fact that official Yerevan clearly outlined the most substantial concessions the Armenian side is ready for. It is Ilham Aliyev’s turn now. Considering the developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, the conclusion is that the mediators visited Baku to persuade the Azeri authorities into changing their position.

Economy and social life

At his meeting with journalists this week, Aristomene Varoudakis, Head of the WB office in Yerevan, reported that a U.S. $29m credit program is being prepared for the Armenian telecommunication sector. A credit agreement is most likely to be signed next September. Varoudakis pointed out that the main WB programs provide for reforms in the Armenian, taxation, customs and telecommunication systems. He pointed out that U.S. $105m of the Russian loan and U.S. $50m of the WB funds will be channeled to the private sector. It will help Armenian businessmen to overcome the crisis. A total of U.S. $10m have been channeled to the capital construction sector for the certain construction projects to be completed.

RA President Serzh Sargsyan’s meeting with the rectors of Armenian higher schools discussed reforms in the higher education system and further steps. President Sargsyan pointed out regular meetings will be held from now on. The Armenian leader stressed the importance of higher-quality education for Armenia’s future. The meeting participants particularly discussed the problems of acceding to the Bologna process and introducing a three-stage education and credit systems. The meeting discussed the organization of foreign citizens’ education. The Armenian President stated he expects the rectors to advance initiatives and carry out consistent work to successfully implement the reforms of Armenia’s higher education system.

This week the RA Commission for Lake Sevan held its regular sitting. Participating in the meeting was Head of the RA Presidential Administration Karen Karapetyan. Commission Chairman Vladimir Movsesyan reported on the Commission’s activities this year and presented a draft work plan for next year. The Commission held a detailed discussion and proposals for improving the situation. Relevant construction documents for the renovation of the damaged 3-km-long section of the Arpa-Sevan tunnel were prepared and the work got under way. Work was also carried out to reduce the water discharge from Lake Sevan for irrigation and suspend the transfer of the Ararat Gold Recovery Company to the Sotk basin of the lake.

T.P.