Domestic policy

Despite being of local scale, the by-elections to the Armenian Parliament in Election District #10 allow a number of important conclusions to be drawn. First of all we can speak of one more defeat democracy suffered in the Armenian state. What else can be said if, in the presence of journalists, the chairmen of election commissions informed the election campaign offices of one of the parliamentary candidates of the impossibility of ballot-box stuffing and of the need for using force. Most of the voters have developed an allergy to the election atmosphere that has been reigning in Armenia for many years. So the voters force themselves to go to polling stations only during presidential elections, placing hopes on them. On the one hand, this is a direct negative result of the actions by the authorities and those blindly executing their orders thereby doing a disservice to their masters. On the other hand, it is blunders made by the Opposition, which is normally able to “stir up” the protesting voters only during national election campaigns. Attention should also be paid to the untimely articles on the diminishing electoral support for the uncompromising Opposition, particularly for the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The fact that Nikol Pashinyan failed to gain victory over Ara Simonyan, the almost unknown, but officially supported parliamentary candidate, is of course a defeat suffered by the ANC. We should not, however, turn a blind eye to a most important fact: in Election District #10 Nikol Pashinyan received almost as many votes as the ANC candidate at the local elections in the Kentron (Center) community last autumn, as well as the ANC ticket at the election of the council of elders on May 31, 2009. Therefore, it is not diminishing electoral support for the Opposition, rather it is a core of active supporters able to play an important role should the political situation in the country be exacerbated. One more result of the by-elections is that, unlike the two previous municipal elections in 2008 and 2009, the opposition candidate gained victory in many election districts, where the Opposition was able to ensure proper control, and the pro-government representatives did not use violence. So the Opposition should not only justly accuse the authorities of gross violations during elections, but also think of its own mistakes during election campaigns.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) has once more showed its inconsistent policy. This week the party held a rather aggressive action of protest in front of the RA Constitutional Court. Later, however, the ARF saw the strong points of the CC-returned verdict, which confirmed the constitutionality of the Armenian-Turkish protocols signed in Zurich. This inconsistency has become the party’s incurable disease, which resulted in the ARF losing its few supporters. The party which has its own TV channel in Yerevan, even had to bring its supporters from villages to hold its public actions. As a result, a huge number of politically active Armenian citizens protesting against the Armenian-Turkish protocols do not take part in the actions of protest under ARF banners. The party itself does not draw any conclusions.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

This week has marked the 20th anniversary of the Armenian pogroms in Baku, Azerbaijan. This sad jubilee is evidence of how far the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples are from real reconciliation. The cause is the Azerbaijani authorities’ unwillingness to admit the facts. Cynical lie has always been their style, but when it comes to the Armenian massacres in Sumgait, Baku and Kirovabad, the imagination of the Azerbaijani state propaganda machine acquires the most monstrous forms. Every year, on January 13 the Azeri mass media speak and write about all but the Armenian pogroms. This year, the Azeri TV and radio did not say a single word. News programs were showering anti-Armenian hysteria on the audience. They even “exposed” some Armenian wines, which, of course, are “Azerbaijani wines.” On top of all, under a decree signed by President Ilham Aliyev, the Azeri mass media are actively preparing for the anniversary of the so-called “January 20 tragedy,” the introduction of Soviet troops into Baku to establish law and order and prevent the annihilation of the local Christian population.

No one, even the “national leader” Heydar Aliyev, who went to the next world a few years ago, can wash away the national disgrace. What is more, he was immediately involved in provoking the Armenian pogroms in Baku — numerous proofs are available. No secret that since 1988 representatives of the Aliyev clan had been doing their best to destabilize the situation in multinational Azerbaijan to create preconditions for “Father the Savior” to return to Baku from Moscow. It was no coincidence that, with the Azerbaijani authorities palsied, Heydar Aliyev, who was in Moscow then, went off into hysterics about the entry of troop and a state of emergency in Baku. Later, the Azeri propaganda was cashing in on the decree declaring a state of emergency in Baku issued by the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet on January 19, 1990. They claimed there were no grounds for introducing troops into the city, which was full of violence and ethnic cleansing. But nothing could be done: about 100 deaths as a result of Armenian pogroms were officially admitted, and the Azeri authorities confirmed the ethnic nature of the massacre in an announcement published in the issue of the Bakinski Rabochiy (Baku Worker) newspaper of January 15, 1990.

With the Azeri authorities strongly restricting to revise their policy of lie, the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process intensified immediately after the New Year celebrations, with Russia being the “hero” acting with tacit consent of the United States and European Union. Despite all the statements made by RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and the Armenia-Turkey normalization can by no means be linked, the Turkish Premier’s visit to Moscow and the RF Foreign Minister’s visit to Yerevan were obviously interrelated. Let us hope that Minister Lavrov’s assurances that Russia rules out the priority of its energy cooperation with Turkey over the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s right to self-determination are close to the truth as well.

Noteworthy is one of Lavrov’s statements. Considering the fact that Russia is a serious state, which has never shown any special diplomacy, the statements appear to be an appeal to official Baku for coming to senses and stopping to believe in their own “sweet dreams.” At a news conference in Yerevan, the Russian FM stressed that the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s opinion must be taken into account during in the peace process. This proves that the international mediators realize the impossibility of imposing a settlement the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) would object to. So its was made clear for official Baku that the NKR not participating in the negotiations does not means they are bilateral negotiations, and the third party’s opinion must be taken into account in a final settlement.

In any case, in the latter half of this month we should expect the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process to intensify. The Nagorno-Karabakh problem will of course be high on the agenda of RA President Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Moscow scheduled for January 18. The Armenian leader’s visit to Russia is to be followed by a regional visit of OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs. Turkish mass media have reported information of a Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting scheduled for late January. If the reports prove true, it will prove the geopolitical players’ willingness to have the conflict settled in the immediate future. The only question is whether Azerbaijan has realized the need for revising its non-constructive policy and inevitability of bilateral concessions.

Economy and social life

In 2009, communities collected property tax revenues 3.5bn AMD more than in 2008, RA Vice-Premier, Minister of Territorial Administration Armen Gevorgyan told a press conference. “Still, I am not satisfied with the situation, there are great hidden reserves in this sector,” Gevorgyan said. Much can yet be taxed – for example, entertainment tax can be introduced, he said. In any case, Gevorgyan said, relatively satisfactory tax collection by local budgets enabled them to pay off arrears of wages accumulated since 1996. So the arrears have been reduced from 2.3bn AMD in 2008 down to 866m AMD. Minister Gevorgyan reported that the tax revenues collected by local authorities constitute 42% of the total revenues of community budgets. To improve local tax collection, the Government proposed a number of initiatives. Specifically, the standing committees of the RA Parliament are considering a bill on a single land and property tax.

At its sitting, the RA Government approved a credit agreement with the Asian Development Bank signed on October 12, 2009. The North-South corridor investment program involves the Agarak-Kapan and Yerevan-Gyumri-Bavra highways with their infrastructures. The project will improve transport communication with Iran and Georgia and provide access to transnational routes and markets.

According to recent statistical data, a higher birth rate and a lower death rate have been recorded in Armenia. Last year, 44,999 births were registered. Lana Mshetsyan, Spokesperson for RA Minister of Justice, told NEWS.am that 18,765 marriages and 3,013 divorces were registered in Armenia last year. Also, 14,165 males acknowledged paternity, 131 children were adopted. A total of 27,268 deaths were registered in Armenia last year. In 2008, 41,406 births, 18,236 marriages, 3,192 divorces were registered. Also, 13,257 males acknowledged paternity, 180 children were adopted and 27,281 deaths were registered in Armenia in 2008.

T.P.