Azerbaijan major obstacle to Armenian-Turkish reconciliation

Both Armenia and Turkey benefit from the normalization process – Ankara hopes it will be a step forward in implementing its policy of zero problems with neighbors, and discussion of the Armenian Genocide in a subcommittee of historians will cushion the wave of international recognition. Armenia will have open borders and diplomatic relations with its neighbor, Sabine Freizer, Director of the Europe Program, International Crisis Group, stated at the NATO-held 73^rd Rose Roth seminar in Yerevan.

Yerevan will derive one more benefit from normalizing its relations with Turkey – the Armenian authorities will finally show the Diaspora their ability to pursue a policy independent of the Diaspora’s will, she said.

She stressed, however, that Azerbaijan, rather than Armenia and Turkey reconciliation, is a major obstacle to the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Azerbaijan believes Turkey closed the Armenian-Turkish border because of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and must not be reopened until the Armenian troops leave the territories under their control. The Turkish authorities explain the fact in a similar way, but the real reason for their step is quite different, she said.

Nonetheless, after starting negotiations with Armenia, Turkey believed it would be able to further the process without considering Baku’s opinion. Ankara did not expect Azerbaijan to offer fierce resistance, the expert said. Baku managed to cash in on the sentiments of the Turkish public and Opposition, and Ankara has to consider Azerbaijan’s opinion in its talks with Armenia – particularly with respect to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Freizer said.

According to her, one more factor complicating the situation is the RA Constitutional Court’s verdict. Freizer believes, however, that the verdict is by no means an obstacle to the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. The expert stressed that Ankara is ready to ratify the protocols if the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process shows any progress. In question is not the withdrawal of Armenian troops or any framework agreement, but a small step forward. Freizer reported that she held a meeting with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in Turkey. He stated Turkey is ready to ratify the protocols if they are not different from the ones signed in Zurich. Freizer pointed out her optimism about the Armenian-Turkish normalization process.

T.P.