Domestic policy

Major domestic political events this week centered round the consideration of the situation in Armenia by the PACE Monitoring Committee. The discussion once more showed antipodal opinions on the human rights situation and democratic development in Armenia held by the pro-government and opposition camps.

At the Monitoring Committee’s meeting in Paris, France, on March 17, pursuant to the PACE Co-Rapporteurs’ requirements, the Armenian authorities submitted a schedule of measures aimed at implementing the PACE resolutions on the post-election processes in the country. Specifically, the Armenian authorities pledged to amend the RA Election Code by the end of this year “in order to start preparing for new elections in 2011.” Official Yerevan also promised to hold a broadcasting contest this July, and the A1+ TV Company, which got its broadcasting license revoked in 2002, will be able to participate in the contest. The European Court of Human Rights ruled the TV company’s rights had been violated. The Armenian authorities deliberately postponed the relevant contests under the pretext of affording all the TV companies an opportunity to digitize their broadcasting.

The principal opposition political force in Armenia, Armenian National Congress (ANC), was initially sure that the authorities would submit “half-hearted measures” rather than a schedule of practical measures to overcome the consequences of the 2008 domestic political crisis. The day before the Monitoring Committee was to discuss the situation in Armenia, the ANC held a procession of protest in Yerevan. It was an interim event before the next republican rally scheduled for April 6. The demonstrator handed the extra-parliamentary Opposition’s demands over to the CE office in Yerevan. The ANC representatives stated the ANC has its own schedule of measures. As regards the demands submitted to the international institutions, the AC does not expect much of them – they only contain information. As regards the ANC’s demands as such, they were made public at the March 1 rally: renewing the A1+ TV Company’s broadcasting license before this summer, reforming the law-enforcement agencies and election law, appointing early parliamentary and presidential elections for the period between June and September 2010. It should be noted that the ANC’s last – and the most significant – demand can only be met under massive rallies’ pressure. At present, such pressure is only possible in case of most unfavorable results of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The developments are not yet following this course. So the ANC has to “restrict itself” to mass, but occasional rallies designed to keep the few supporters “mobilized” and political passions “high.”

The package of bills designed to regulate journalists’ activities approved by the RA Parliament in its first reading evoked a serious public response. At first sight, the law seems to have been made less severe: libel and misinformation are viewed as an administrative offence rather than a criminal one. However, many representatives of civil society, experts and opposition journalists see a serious threat to freedom of speech in the bills, as they provide for extremely high fines for libel. The opponents are sure the new law will become a scourge in the authorities’ hands against the newspaper out of their control. They also refer to the state of emergency in Armenia March 1 to 20, when all the restrictions on freedom of speech applied on the opposition media alone, while the newspaper under the authorities’ control offered their biased interpretation of the tragic events following the presidential election.

It should be noted that the information policy of the print media supporting both political camps needs regulating. However, with the previous experience and the political reality considered, the bills the ruling parties are pushing through Parliament might serve as an instrument for struggling against the opposition newspapers. Applying sanctions against the opposition newspapers can hardly be of any benefit to a country under PACE’s permanent control. We should remember, after all, that the newspapers publishing critical articles about the statesmen of every rank are most popular in Armenia now. This means that the public needs the information that is not normally “on the air.” Struggling against such newspapers may prove to be one more headache for the authorities, with numerous scandals and appeals to international agencies.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan has been the “hero” of the region this week. He threatened to deport alleged100,000 illegal Armenians in Turkey. That irresponsible statement suggests a number of conclusions about the chief ideologists and champion of the policy of democratizing Turkey’s public life.

The likeness the incumbent Turkish leader bears to his “small brother” Ilham Aliyev is the first thing that strikes the eye. The Turkish Premier has had several grave fits of hysteria since the Armenian-Turkish normalization process was launched. During his fits Mr. Erdogan first reminded Yerevan and the entire world of illegal Armenian immigrants in Turkey and then threatened to deport them. Turkish Premier kept on “whetting his voracious appetite” – the number of illegal immigrants to be deported was gradually increasing from 70,000 up to 100,000. Considering Erdogan’s rhetoric, you cannot but draw a parallel with “Turkey’s brother Azerbaijan,” which has made it its state policy to deliberately exaggerate the figures having to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Immediately after the hostilities, Azerbaijan claimed 13% of its territories to be “occupied.” Later the figure was 17% and it is 20% now. The number of Azerbaijani refugees similarly reached 1,000,000, though the Armenian troops did not make any advance after May 1994. Considering the approaches shown by Turkey and Azerbaijan, which are strikingly alike, you remember the saying “scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.”

The 15,000 illegal Armenian immigrants in Turkey are a real disgrace for Yerevan. This is one of the results of the hard social conditions in independent Armenia for many years, and the authorities have not so far taken sufficient necessary measures to resolve the population’s social problems. Turkey, for its part, should think of the consequences deportation of thousands of Armenian citizens might have amid the policy of zero problems with neighbors declared by official Ankara.

Even if the 15,000 illegal Armenians immigrants are really deported, it will not be a disaster for the country’s socio-economic life. As to Turkey, it will certainly lose.

For several years, the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) has been posing a champion of a new policy. In this context, some have even called Erdogan a second Ataturk. But no progress has so far been made in the country: the Kurdish problem remains unsolved, and the Turkish Premier has shown that it is a person’s nationality that accounts for an attitude toward him or her in “secular and democratic Turkey” – he threatened to deport illegal immigrants only because they were Armenians.

It should also be noted that Erdogan’s threats remain mere threats. Turkey cannot make any progress in its way to the European Union (EU), and mass deportation of even illegal immigrants will destroy the last hopes for the country’s admission to the EU. Significant are however the very statements that have been made now that the Armenian-Turkish process is on the point of failing.

Both Turkish and Armenian officials have changed their tone over the last weeks. The impression is that neither Ankara nor Yerevan has a clear idea of their further steps in the Armenian-Turkish normalization process. Or they are gradually revising their previously constructive positions.

The Nagorno-Karabakh problem proved the most serious hindrance to the normalization process. As the anniversary of the Armenian Genocide is drawing near (the United States believes Yerevan and Ankara will make a breakthrough in their relations on this occasion), the expert and political statements on interrelation between the Armenian-Turkish normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes are proving true. In defiance of its promises to settle relations with Armenia without any preconditions, Turkey assumed the role of hostage to Azerbaijan Ankara has delayed the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in the Turkish Parliament as long as possible, making a positive decision conditional on progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. As a result, official Yerevan’s forecast have come true – making the two processes conditional on each other will cause both to fail.

In any case, the only thing for us to do is to state that the Armenian-Turkish normalization process has been stalemated due to the combined efforts of Baku and Ankara. With the perseverance shown by Azerbaijan and Turkey considered, we can say that the process can only be continued if the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process shows appreciable progress, which is hardly likely. The situation may become clearer by the end of this month, when the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs pay a new visit to the region.

Economy and social life

This week the Armenian national currency has continued depreciating. The process has been accompanied by a steady rise in prices for stable goods. RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that a law on wage, pension and allowance adjustment for inflation would entail inflation risks in the country, which might cause a collapse of the state’s macroeconomic system, According to him, legislations like that are adopted in the countries with inflation exceeding 10%. “But in countries like Armenia, with stable inflation, such a law would be inadvisable,” Sargsyan said. He stressed that the Government is now trying to curb a price rise. “It would be more advisable to curb inflation than adjust the population’s incomes for inflation, and the Government is doing it now,” the Premier said.

At his meeting with the RA Premier, President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Thomas Mirow made a high appraisal of the Armenian Government’s macroeconomic policy. He pointed out that the EBRD seriously increased its aid to the country last year.

Armenia and Iran will sign a free trade agreement, stated Robert Harutyunyan, Director General of the Armenian Development Agency. The Armenian and Iranian ministries of economy were ordered to draft the agreement at the January sitting of the Armenian-Iranian Intergovernmental Commission. Under a prior agreement, the imported products will be exempted from taxation. “Iran’s 80-million-strong market is of high importance for Armenia. We have been unable to enter this market because of the very high taxes on imports in Iran,” Harutyunyan said.

T.P.