Below is an interview with Richard Giragosian, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS).

By Artak Yeghiazaryan

Question: At present, what is the basis for negotiations for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as the Saint Petersburg principles are being talked of?

Answer: Azerbaijan’s latest provocation bereft the principles on the table – irrespective of whether they are Madrid principles or any other ones – of their importance. I think Azerbaijan is less inclined to diplomacy now. In other words, before the provocation the OSCE Minsk Group worked at the Madrid Principles, whereas now they are only trying to keep Azerbaijan at the negotiating table. On the other hand, even without that attack, the document on the table was not of importance. The present negotiations remind me of a computer with one side using Windows 95, the second Windows XP and the third VISTA as documents on the table. The problem, however, is not the software, but hardware. No matter what kind of Madrid principles or Windows we can use, as the problem is in the computer that does not operate for the following two reasons: first, Karabakh is absent from the computer; second, Azerbaijan is constantly hitting the computer with a hammer. Moreover, the computer has been divided into two halves - Armenia and Azerbaijan – gradually alienating from each other.

It is not important what is on the table, as the Minsk Group is now more concerned over the possibility of Azerbaijan’s not continuing the negotiations. In this situation Armenia must say: “Stop! We want Azerbaijan to reject a military way before we turn to the documents on the table.” Before that, we must shift all the pressure onto Azerbaijan and exert press the Minsk Group for putting an end to Azerbaijan’s provocations, as, diplomatically, Armenia’s positions are stronger now. The only source of threat is Azerbaijan, which means Armenia can use its diplomatic potential and prevent U.N. or EU resolutions.

Question: What is your opinion of the international community’s reaction, particularly of their appeals to both sides, though we are well aware of which one is the provoker?

Answer: Indeed, the diplomatic reaction to the incident was rather soft and lukewarm.  However, the recent events have shown that the international community realizes the following fact: Azerbaijan is the only threat to peace and stability in the region. There is only one aggressor, sitting on oil barrels in Baku. As to the international community’s reaction, even their soft-toned diplomatic messages show Azerbaijan the only culprit. The international community is trying to use a diplomatic language, but, I can assure you, public appeals and private messages are quite different.

Question: Russian mass media recently spread information about likely deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkish ones in Nakhchivan, which was immediately followed by the incident on the border. Do you see any linkage between these events?

Answer: Definitely there is. Russia wants to take advantage of the situation. It is for the first time that Russia has wished to deploy peacekeepers, but it is for the first time disadvantageous both for Azerbaijan, Armenia and for Karabakh. I am not confident that Russia will get what it wants. Armenian forces should ensure security of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The example of Balkan states shows that foreign peacekeepers fail to maintain peace.

After the statements about peacekeepers’ deployment in Nagorno-Karabakh and the border incident, Iran’s Ambassador stated that Tehran will not allow presence of any foreign troops in the conflict zone, and that the incident is a provocation organized by external forces. What is your opinion of this?

Iran’s response was in fact related to Azerbaijan and not Karabakh. The point is Israeli press spread information that Americans and Israelis are stationing troops in Azerbaijan, that is, taking up positions against Iran. Naturally, under the present conditions, Iran is more concerned over major threat that may come from Azerbaijan than over Karabakh.

Question: Is it possible that Russia instigated the provocation on the border?

Aswer: Yes, it is logical. The provocation might help Russia to pursue two goals. First, it is a basis for introducing troops into the conflict zone. Russia’s strength was based on two factors in Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Russian passports were issued to the local citizens, and Russian peacekeepers were present there. In Karabakh Russia has neither, and, by carrying out such a policy, it is likely to increase its influence. The second objective is as follows: Russia has intensified its contacts with Azerbaijan for the last two years and the Azerbaijani attack might be useful for its strategic goals. We should understand that, in prospect, Armenia must oppose deployment of any peacekeeping mission in the region, including Russian and NATO ones.

Question: Azerbaijan already discusses how many days it will take them to occupy Karabakh. How realistic is such a prospect?

Answer: From the military point of view it is quite dangerous for Azerbaijan to think in this direction, as the losses Azerbaijan will incur in a war will be very great. However, Azerbaijan is not rational and there is a danger Aliyev will launch a war without hesitation, following Saakashvili’s example. Azerbaijan may begin battle, but not a war, though I fear a battle may result in a war and the situation will go beyond control. One thing is for sure, this summer will be more complicated and precarious.

Question: What response will the international community give to Azerbaijan’s blackmail? Will it surrender to intimidation and make concessions or toughen its position on Azerbaijan?

Answer: Everybody understands the Azerbaijani threats are empty and if it starts a war, it will be defeated. After constant threats over the years Azerbaijan is trying to show these threats are not empty, but this country, being a dangerous one, is acting idiotically, as launching a war will be tantamount to a suicide for it. Azerbaijan tells the whole world: “We are children, if you do not give us candies, we will become naughty and start fighting.”  The international community will show varied responses to this. Some countries, particularly those who depend on oil, would like to give Azerbaijan this candy, as this child is sitting on the pipeline. Others will say, “Who is this idiot?” Azerbaijan will lose respect for itself, will have failures in diplomacy and place Armenia in a more advantageous position. One more remark: I was surprised Azerbaijan chose this time for such a provocation. I mean it was organized in advance of the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the region. Usually, when somebody is waiting for guests, he dresses beautifully, shaves and tidies the house, whereas Aliyev, figuratively speaking, stripped off his clothes, threw on the floor and peed on them.