The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has published the results of surveys on a price rise expected in the 2nd quarter of 2010. The surveys involved financial institutions, households and the real sector.

Commercial banks proved the most pessimistic: 67% of them forecast a 5.5%-8.5% average price rise for the following 12 months. Only 43% of lending agencies forecast a price rise.

According to the CBA-conducted survey, 47.7% of housewives believe prices will be stable. The survey was conducted before the recent shocks on the consumer market. The results would be quite different if the survey were conducted in the 2nd quarter of 2010.

Unfortunately, CBA publications do not contain forecasts for the real sector. As regards interest rates, most commercial banks and lending agencies forecast stable interest rates. Banks expect lower interest rates on foreign exchange investments.