The Russian-Armenian agreement prolonging the Russian military base’s presence in Armenia was inevitable, as both Moscow and Yerevan were interested in it, the Russian political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky stated in an interview with Day.Az.

He stressed that Russia has not a clear decision on what to do in case Armenian-Azerbaijani military conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh resumes. “We can only expect official Moscow to do its best to prevent the war. The events in Kyrgyzstan showed Russia was against using its forces outside its borders to prevent any tension between the local population and the Russian living in the former Soviet republics,” the expert said. He stressed Moscow and Washington show similar approaches to a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Belkovsky believes the status quo in the conflict zone may continue for a long period yet. He cited the example of Northern Cyprus. “No state recognizes Northern Cyprus, but the conflict is not settled in a military way either. The European Union is not helping Cyprus, an EU member, to resolve the problem,” the expert said. In case hostilities resume in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia, the EU and U.S. will not assume unambiguous positions, and much will depend on how long the hostilities last. “If it is a short war, the world powers will recognize the post-bellum status quo. However, if it lasts long, the world powers will do their best to put an end to it and, like in the first case, recognize the post-bellum status quo,” Belkovsky said. He stressed that none of Azerbaijan’s ally will offer its support to that state in case it resumes hostilities. “The same with Armenia – it will not have allies in case of offensive operations. If, however, the Armenian side has to defend itself, the world powers’ position will depend on how long the new Armenian-Azerbaijani war in Nagorno-Karabakh lasts,” the expert concluded.