Below is an interview by Mr. Zafer Yoruk, a Turkish expert and doctor of political science, lecturer at Izmir University of Economics, to NEWS.am

Question: What do you think of the current state of the Armenian-Turkish relations and what are the prospects of their development?

Answer: There have been some developments in the Armenian-Turkish relations within recent years. All began from the Armenia-Turkey football match and the visit of the Turkish President here for a football match. Then the same happened in Bursa in Turkey when the Armenian President arrived. It was followed by talks and Protocols. Now as we understand the protocols are somehow suspended. This is probably for domestic political reasons both in Armenia and Turkey. I think that after the forthcoming elections, constitutional referendum and imminent general elections in 2011. Until then I do not expect the suspension will go any better because AKP’s coming closer to Armenia will be used by the opposition as an anti-national move and they will lose some votes for that. So they are probably are happy about the suspension at the moment. Therefore, I expect that if they are elected again, which is likely, the AKP will look forward for good relations again after the elections in 2011-2012.

Question: So you expect there will be the second turn in the rapprochement?

Answer: Yes, I expect it. You know I do not really know the contents of the Protocols and nobody knows in Turkey. I am not interested I have not read them. But newspapers also do not write about contents. They are talking just about the fact that the Protocols were signed, about the U.S. pressure and so on. I expect some kind of concession on the Armenian side regarding Karabakh. I do know what kind of concession it could be. I also expect in return the border to be opened as a concession from the Turkish side.

Question: You have talked about American pressure.  How is the U.S. pressurizing Turkey in general? What are the reasons and motives?

Answer: To get an answer to this question you should look at Turkey’s foreign policy. There have been recently some shifts of axes in Turkey’s foreign policy. Since 1915, Turkey has been acting as a closest ally of the U.S., especially in the Middle East and the region in general. But, of course, there were some issues on which the sides had disagreement, for example Cyprus. In 1970s the Turkish government tried to establish good links with the Soviet Union as well. So all this things showed some kind of autonomy of Turkish policy from U.S. demand. But today something different is happening. Turkey is changing its role in the region, for example, in the Caucasus. In all the disagreements between different countries in the Caucasus, Turkey sided with Muslim states. Ankara supported them unconditionally. Now this role is changing, it tries to change the role in the Caucasus and the Middle East on the whole. Turkey is not an unconditional supporter of Turkic groups or nations, but a kind of “big brother” or negotiator, a peace envoy who is able to solve the problems and negotiate with different sides. In this move the largest pressure comes not from the U.S. but from the Turkic nations, one of them Azerbaijan. This is more important. I think the U.S. is happy to see Turkey playing more independent role and adopting more bilateral position in the region. However, U.S. is much concerned about Turkey’s relations with Iran and the possibility of end of relations with Israel.  

Question: Many foreign experts think that the recent incident with the Freedom Flotilla was a kind of show staged by Israel and Turkey. What do you think about it?

Answer: You know there are seven people dead. And no one sacrifices its seven citizens for a show. It is not ethical to sacrifice people’s lives for a show. I do not believe there was conspiracy to popularize Turkey in the Middle East by pretending to have bad relations with Israel. 

Question: Some politicians and experts consider that the Armenian-Turkish process was suspended due to Azerbaijan’s pressure on Turkey. Do you think so?

Answer: That is a big factor but also Azerbaijani pressure has a great effect on the Turkish Opposition and it provided good arguments for them, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and especially the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is responsible for stepping back in Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. If it was Azerbaijan alone it could have been solved through relations with Azerbaijan. However, when it comes to domestic policy or affects domestic policy, it means losing votes.

Question: Two Armenians have recently filed a lawsuit against the Turkish Government, demanding compensation. What do you think what can be the consequences? Will such precedents affect the Armenian-Turkish relations and be advantageous or disadvantageous for the process?

Answer: Of course, such cases will be disadvantageous for the process, as they are remembered more than the contents of the protocols. It will be on the headlines of the media. It negatively affects public opinion due to exaggeration by the media. Media likes speculations about Turks and Armenians. It tells us about what might happen in the future regarding the developments of Turkish-Armenian relations and phobia or fear I was talking about, the fear that Armenians can come and want their land back. When this kind of case is opened, it means there is substance in this phobia. 

Question: In fact we can see that the two issues: establishment of political relations and genocide recognition are considered as two separate issues. They say, “Let’s establish diplomatic ties and open the border and then we will talk about Genocide recognition and compensation.” What do you think if we separate these two issues, how will we manage to push forward the Genocide recognition?

Answer: In 1980s Turkish President Turgut Ozal and Greek Premier Andreas Papandreou met in Davos. Since then Turkish-Greek relations have improved a lot. One item of their talks was history textbooks, how Turks are presented in Greece and vice versa. The commissions were established to change the contents of the textbooks in most acceptable way for the both sides. I think it bore important fruits for the both sides. The rapprochement between Armenian and Turkish governments must lead to this in future. A physical contact, that is opening the border, is better than filing cases against Turkey. It will lead to discussions of the issue in Turkish society because if you swear at Turks in every sentence in the textbooks, it means the educational system needs reform, and it will affect the mentality of both sides.