Although Azerbaijan’s military budget is ten times larger than the Armenian one, although Azerbaijan threatens to resume hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, it will never do it, Russian expert told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

Anatoly Tsiganok, Head of the Russia-based Military Forecast Center, Azerbaijan’s oil facilities will be first under attack in case hostilities resume. In this case Azerbaijan will find itself in a difficult situation.

Presently, Europe gets a lot of oil benefits from Azerbaijan, and it will hardly allow resumption of war, as it will be extremely undesirable for the EU. Meanwhile, the U.S. does not need another problem in the South Caucasus and is not interested in it, the expert said.

Armenia is also Moscow’s strategic partner. As to Azerbaijan-Russia relations, the countries are involved in joint oil industry and division of the Caspian Sea. This accounts for current good relations of Russia with both states, Tsiganok added.

All this only indicates one thing: status quo in the conflict zone is beneficial to all, except for Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Political expert pointed to a rather complicated scheme of security prevailing in the South Caucasus. “On the one hand, there is CSTO with its members – Armenia and Russia, on the other – NATO with Georgia and Azerbaijan striving to join the alliance,” he said adding that mixture of these interests does not suggest a great likelihood of war resumption.