It is now up to President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan to decide if war or peace is more threatening, said Europe program director of the International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer in her article in The New York Times.

According to her, the signs that Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders will reach agreement in Kazan seem promising.

“To some, the deal on the table may not seem like much. After all, it would still only mark the start of a process, not its conclusion. But if Medvedev can get them to put ink to paper, it will be a rare and significant step forward in this confrontation and a validation of the Russian leader’s persistence,” she said.

Unless the presidents sign a treaty, the international actors must prepare for “renewal of fighting that would be drawn out”, Freizer said.