Poland's ruling coalition has lost its lead over the main opposition bloc for the first time since winning the 2015 elections, a sign that inflation is beginning to influence politics.

With just over a year left until the next general election, the results are a potential warning to the nationalist Law and Justice Party and their ruling allies. The coalition is torn apart by disagreements over clashes with the European Union and is facing growing public anger over a deepening cost-of-living crisis.

According to a poll published by Kantar Public, the Law and Justice Party and its two junior partners received 26% support. The Civic Coalition, a four-party alliance led by the opposition Civic Platform, won 27% of the vote, according to a July 15-20 poll.

With the war in Ukraine pushing up food and fuel prices worldwide, inflation in Poland accelerated to a 25-year high of 15.6% in June. This is putting growing pressure on Poles as they also grapple with soaring mortgage payments and worries about a shortage of coal used to heat their homes.

The government rushed to help by cutting taxes on fuel and food. A law was also passed allowing borrowers to suspend mortgage payments. However, some members of the ruling party also irritate their supporters by advising Poles to eat less or stock up on firewood in the forests for heating.

As the economic situation worsens, the government of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki remains embroiled in conflict with the EU over accusations of backsliding on democracy. His administration hopes the European Commission will soon start disbursing the 35.4 billion euros in aid Poland was supposed to receive from the bloc's post-pandemic fund.

But it is unlikely that the money will begin to flow in any time soon. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that while Warsaw had changed its judicial law, which the EU's highest court said, Warsaw still hadn't done enough to start receiving aid.