A harsh winter could lead to social unrest in Europe, where the war in Ukraine has already led to "horrible" economic consequences and causes fears of recession, said the head of the IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, reports Reuters.

The IMF managing director said the current situation means the European Central Bank needs to carefully balance its fight against inflation, "mindful of the necessity to keep the economy going."

“There is certainly fear of recession in some countries, or even if it is not recession, that it would feel like recession this winter,” Georgieva said. “And if Mother Nature decides not to cooperate, and the winter is actually harsh, that could lead to some social unrest.”

Central banks must be persistent in fighting widespread inflation, Georgieva said, acknowledging that many economists were wrong when they predicted last year that inflation would fall.

Inflation is stubborn, it has a broader base than we thought, she said. - And that means central banks need to be just as persistent in fighting it.

If fiscal and monetary policies work well, she said, next year could be less painful. But if fiscal policy is not focused enough, it could become the enemy of monetary policy, fueling inflation.