“Problems in relations with the United States, and the lack of progress in Turkey’s efforts to secure membership of the EU, led commentators to speculate that Turkey and Russia could form an ‘axis of the excluded’ in Eurasia,” reads the report by British Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House, titled “Turkey, Russia and the Caucasus”.

According to the report, Russian-Georgian conflict in 2008 made Turkish authorities “to reassess” policy towards Russian and the Caucasus. “Turkey had developed burgeoning economic and political ties with Russia and maintained close links with neighbouring Georgia,” the report says. NEWS.am posts the passages from the report concerning Armenia.

“The conflict raised questions over whether Turkey would become a key energy transit state given the deteriorating security situation in the South Caucasus. Relations between Ankara and Moscow were challenged as both had previously stressed their common interests in preserving regional stability.

However, the conflict opened up possibilities for Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia, although this could upset Ankara’s close ties with Baku.

Concerning the North Caucasus, an initial sympathy in Turkey for the plight of the Chechens caused friction between Ankara and Moscow. Turkey was grouped with Azerbaijan and Georgia in a bloc supportive of the emerging interests of NATO and the EU in the South Caucasus and aligned against the policies of Armenia and Russia.

Turkey’s official position has been that the land frontier would only be reopened and diplomatic relations established with Yerevan after Armenia openly acknowledged Turkey’s borders, abandoned its international campaign for recognition of the events of 1915 as Genocide, and resolved the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh to the satisfaction of Azerbaijan.

With little prospect for a peaceful solution over Nagorno-Karabakh and feeling threatened by Baku, Yerevan has developed close economic, political and military ties with Moscow.

After the events of August 2008 President Gul accepted an invitation from his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan to attend a World Cup qualifying football match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams in Yerevan on 6 September. The Russo-Georgian conflict gave an added impetus, and in the wake of Gul’s visit there were a number of high-level contacts between Turkish and Armenian politicians. Ankara was also being pressured by the new Obama administration, which was seriously considering officially recognizing the events of 1915 as Genocide.

After further Swiss mediation, on 31 August 2009 a statement was released noting that Ankara and Yerevan had initialled two Protocols to establish diplomatic relations, open the land border and develop bilateral relations. The intention was for both parties to complete internal political consultations within six weeks, sign the Protocols, and then submit them to their parliaments for ratification. According to an agreed timetable, the land border would be open within two months after the Protocols entered into force. Various sub-commissions would also then be formed to develop relations, including most controversially a sub-commission to work on the ‘historical dimension’. The two Protocols were signed by the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers in Switzerland on 10 October and a few days later Sargsyan visited Turkey to attend the second match between the Turkish and Armenian national football teams.

Expectations have been raised that relations between Turkey and Armenia will be fully normalized in the next months. Both the EU and the United States have warmly welcomed this turn of events.”