As a result of intensive bilateral high-level negotiations in 2025, as well as the Washington Declaration and the initialing of the Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, achieved through the active involvement of the President of the United States Donald J. Trump, the likelihood of a military escalation has significantly decreased, while the likelihood of a peaceful resolution has increased. This is stated in the “Armenia-Azerbaijan” section of the 2026 report on Armenia’s external risks published by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.

The report adds as follows, in particular: “Based on a thorough analysis of these and parallel processes, we assess a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, motivated by a military-political objective, as highly unlikely in 2026. We also assess local actions or incidents not driven by military-political objectives as unlikely.

In 2026, it is highly likely that progress will be achieved in the delimitation and demarcation process, bilateral trade and economic initiatives, dialogue between the two societies, humanitarian, and other issues. With regard to the unblocking of regional infrastructures as well, progress will highly likely be reached in ongoing processes, and the bilateral connectivity initiatives with Armenia’s neighbors will boost bigger regional economic projects.

At the same time, risks of malign activities against these processes by states that pursue the goal of maintaining and expanding their influence in the region will increase. The consistent use of harmful narratives and terms questioning Armenia’s sovereignty and threatening the implementation of connectivity projects by Azerbaijan and other actors will only contribute to the materialization of these risks.”