YEREVAN. – Inflation rate will likely diverse 4±1.5% over this year, Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) monetary policy for the first quarter of 2012 reads.

It is based on the supposition that there will be no pressure by the international trade market, while internal demand influence will be neutral. 

At the same time, CBA states some risks, which can shake plans. In particular, it is maintenance of political tension around Iran, which will cause oil prices to go up, while in a worsening debt condition in Europe, currency may weaken in state-partners of Armenia. These developments may cause additional inflation pressure to the inner market. Besides, the perspectives of agricultural year are yet unknown, which also influences inflation.