As Washington's priorities shift toward the ongoing operation against Iran, European officials fear the US will lose interest in ending the war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year.

The practical consequences could prove even more serious than the political ones: Ukraine may receive less American weaponry needed to repel Russia's daily missile strikes, as US combat systems are being actively used against Iran. "If there are prolonged military operations in the Middle East, this will certainly affect supplies. I am sure of it," President Zelensky told journalists Monday.

Trump has said the US-Israeli war against Iran could last four to five weeks, but he is prepared for a longer conflict. "There is a distraction effect," noted Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute. "How do you keep Trump focused on deterring Russia in Ukraine if he has just opened another potential front? And if you are actively sending weaponry to the region, there are fewer stockpiles left."

Even before the airstrikes on Iran began, officials in Washington warned that such a conflict could deplete American weapons stockpiles. "Much of the combat power, including interceptors and other missiles, has already been expended," said a senior European official. "The US needs to replenish, which means less for Europe or Ukraine."

Negotiations are continuing on paper — Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian representatives in Geneva last week — but the planned talks in Abu Dhabi on March 5–6 are now unconfirmed due to Middle East hostilities. Zelensky noted the meeting could be moved to Turkey or Switzerland if needed.

The crisis has already had one tangible impact on Ukraine's EU accession process: a meeting planned in Cyprus this week was postponed after an Iranian drone struck the British air base there. Without urgent financing, Ukraine faces a budget deficit next month. The EU says it plans to reschedule the meeting as soon as possible. "We don't want the situation in the Middle East to affect this," a European diplomat said.