This phenomenon is typical of the pre-election period, economist Suren Parsyan said in an interview with NEWS.am, commenting on the fact that over the past ten days, the US dollar has fallen by 5–7 drams in Armenian banks and exchange offices.

At this stage, large financial flows enter circulation. Various political forces bring funds into the market to cover election-related expenses.

“Every day, foreign exchange transactions in Armenia amount to around $80 million. When several tens of millions of additional currency enter the market, sharp fluctuations occur,” Parsyan said.

According to him, the current appreciation of the dram is beneficial for the Central Bank as an effective tool for controlling inflation. Although the situation around Iran and rising transport costs should have led to higher prices, a stronger dram is offsetting this effect and preventing a sharp increase in import prices.

The dollar is also affected by global factors: rising US national debt and a possible reduction in the refinancing rate are weakening its attractiveness for investors. According to the economist, geopolitical tensions and capital outflows from the Middle East to safer regions, including Armenia, are putting additional pressure on the US currency.

Parsyan does not rule out that the situation may change after the election process ends. The government has presented a relatively high budget, the implementation of which will require significant financial resources. These large-scale expenditures may create new inflationary pressure, and the state may need to use its foreign exchange reserves to manage the situation.

According to the economist’s forecast, the coming weeks or months will likely continue to see dram appreciation, but longer-term stability will depend on the efficiency of government spending and global oil prices.