The global objective of the 44-day war was not Armenia but Iran, analyst Argishti Kiviryan told NEWS.am.

In his words, the 44-day war was initiated by Azerbaijan, taking into account that it could be turned into an anti-Iranian war, because there is the global problem of the blockade of Iran, and it is necessary to cut the Armenia-Iran corridor and the Armenian-Iranian border, which will lead to the fact that Azerbaijan will join Nakhijevan and they will join Turkey.

"In other words, a Turkic platform will be created, capable of blowing up Iran from within, given that more than 30 percent of the population in Iran are Turkic-speaking peoples and there has been activity felt there in recent decades. Besides, this activity has also been given an additional boost by (Azerbaijan's) victory in the Artsakh war," he said, adding that it was no secret that an anti-Iranian uprising was being prepared in Tabriz recently.

According to him, Iran realizes all this and is well aware that when the border with Armenia is closed, Iran will invade. This is the reason for Iran's harsh statements in which high-ranking Iranian officials and generals literally say that the thousand-year border of Armenia cannot be changed, that they will not allow border changes in the region, that a new war in the Caucasus is directed against Iran.

"In other words, they are making it clear that we know we are the target. So this is not the first time the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has escalated, Iran is pulling troops to the border. This time, in parallel with that, Turkey has also deployed troops to the border and is trying to force Iran not to make any drastic steps under any circumstances," he said.

Talking about Armenian interests in this context, Argishti Kiviryan said that the West will not protect Armenian interests militarily.  According to him, the West is busy resolving its issues in the region, including at the expense of Armenia's interests, while Russia is busy with Ukraine and is now in a rather difficult situation. He noted that Azerbaijan still has a certain fear of Russia, but Azerbaijan is no longer as wary of Russia as it was in 2020 or 10 years ago, and after winning the 44-day war, it seems that its finest hour has come.

Answering the question whether Iran will deploy its troops, the expert noted that it depends to some extent on Russian-Iranian agreements. He did not rule out that while in this difficult situation in Ukraine, Russia asked Iran to take Armenia under its protection for a certain period.

"I do not rule out that there were some such talks, talks, agreements. Now in order for Iran to take a much more decisive step, it needs not just Moscow's permission, we are not talking about permission, but its non-public support. In many ways this is possible because recently we have seen active Russian-Iranian military cooperation. In particular, Iran is supplying Russia with strike drones, and in recent days the Western press has been voicing opinions, videos, and photos about the effective use of these drones. These drones are capable of neutralizing effective strikes provided by the West, particularly HIMARS and other systems," he said.

In this case, he said, everything will depend on Russia and Iran's shadowy arrangements and how much they can try to stop Turkey, because, after all, they must understand that if Azerbaijan takes more aggressive steps, it will do so only in agreement with and with Turkey's support.

"In order to act more actively, Iran must see in Armenia an ally, a force with which it can cooperate, this is very important for Iran, as well as for any state that tries to penetrate another territory." Not only is there no such force in Armenia, he said, but Yerevan is very enthusiastic when one or another anti-Iranian Western figure comes here. "There is such a joy here, it is enough for them to appear, make a statement, lay a flower at the Genocide memorial, say a few bold phrases, and then the Armenian side loses its orientation," he said.

Kiviryan said that Azerbaijan has nothing to fear from the West. It can only fear from a country that can carry out a real military attack or pose a military threat to it. In this regard, Azerbaijan fears only two states, Iran and Russia, despite the fact that Russia is now in a weakened state.

"No matter what statements or resolutions the others make, they cannot harm it (Azerbaijan). As a result, they quietly come and buy oil and gas from it, and ask behind the scenes: how can we help? What happened during the second Artsakh war, a number of Western countries provided Baku with accurate satellite data".