Armenian News-NEWS.am presents an article by an American professor Robert Bruce Ware, which was posted on Antiwar.com website with some extractions.

Kavkaz-2012 strategic military training exercise of Russia later this month in the North Caucasus region may bring forth economic problems for the West. This is because the exercise is strategically linked to Russian expectations that Iran will be destabilized by the end of this year. If Iran is destabilized, Russia will uphold its obligations to Armenia under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia could cut a military corridor via the center of Georgia, and take control of all oil and gas pipes leading to west from the rich fields of the Caspian Sea. If this is combined with fighting in the Persian Gulf, energy prices may sharply go up.

Russian officials claim that Kavkaz-2012 is a routine exercise, and has no connection with events in other countries. They emphasize that the exercise will occur exclusively on Russian territory and that they deliberately excluded units from Russian military bases in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Armenia. Armenia is a member of the CSTO and will host from Sept. 3 to 8 the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Force exercise “Interaction-2012.”

At the same time, Russian officials expect that Iran’s nuclear program will be attacked by Israel or the U.S. till the end of this year. A sustained Israeli or American attack will lead to serious instability in the southern border of Armenia. Armenian supplies likely will be cut, and Armenia may face a flow of refugees.

An attack on Iran probably will be followed by provocations in areas disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan [Nagorno-Karabakh and territories around it].

In case of instability in Iran, a Russian support to Armenia could be motivated partially by CSTO obligations, along with humanitarian concerns.