YEREVAN. – A limited US retaliation will be possible in Syria, but it would not be a game changer, political analyst told Armenian News-NEWS.am.
Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol,Gunter Walzenbach noted that everyone waited for the reports from the inspectors in order to have some more evidence as to what went on the ground.
“I would see a limited US retaliation in the context of the “Responsibility to protect” debate. Interventions including humanitarian ones are always driven by a set of factors and the geopolitics of Syria are very complex indeed”, he emphasized.
Answering the remark that if the goal were really to protect civilians, the West would have intervened long ago, Walzenbach noted that intervention is difficult because of the different parties involved and the debate in the West has been inconclusive.
“Yet there has always been the ‘red line.’ The attack with chemical weapons is a qualitative change of the conflict and it will spark a reaction. If I had any powers, I would wait and see what the UN says, but President Obama is in a different constellation”, he said, adding if he does not stick to earlier commitments, people might see him as a “paper tiger”.
According to Gunter Walzenbach, yet in the UK everyone is fed up with these kind of interventions because they are costly, risky and little gain.
“So I suppose a strike or several as a kind of retaliation are very likely now but it won't change anything in a greater scheme of things. And only time will tell whether it is a first step in the direction of further escalation”, he emphasized.
Referring to the question what the US will gain from that retaliation, he said that they will keep their face to show they have an interest in the region and they are still the only world policeman.
“Of course cynics will say it is also a chance to test their weapons technology in real world scenarios”, he said, adding that at the same time it is clear that terrorist elements exploit the whole situation and have their own agenda: the experiences with Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya are too close.
The analyst expressed an opinion that the forthcoming G-20 meeting may focus, to some extent, on Syria with Russia and China meeting with Western powers to see whether there is any common ground in conflict management, though clearly there is no reason to be optimistic.
With regard to the roles of Turkey and Iran in the Syrian conflict, Gunter Walzenbach noted that Turkey and Iran are the respective allies of contending forces.
“Without Turkey the humanitarian situation would be worse. Iran was on a more moderate path with the West recently, but developments in Syria might jeopardize this again. Both are of course seen as the two regionally dominant powers or at least seeking that status and hence are bound to use or interpret the Syria conflict in that way,” he concluded.
