Domestic policy
The second Armenian president Robert Kocharyan’s attempts to return to big politics, which were made last week, have remained major events of Armenia’s domestic political life. The attempts have been rather consistent, being made apparent by the former FM Vardan Oskanyan’s statements on the necessity for a change of power, criticism Chairman of the Prosperous Armenia Party Gagik Tsarukyan leveled at Minister of Economy Nerses Yeritsyan. Finally, in his interview with one of the news agencies, Robert Kocharyan criticized the Government’s economic policy.
The authorities gave a rather retrained response. Numerous representatives of the ruling coalition unanimously recognized the ex-president’s right to express his opinion. Since all the ruling parties had for years supported Robert Kocharyan as President, the developments appeared predictable. Responding to the ex-president’s criticism, Eduard Sharmazanov, Press Secretary of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) led by President Serzh Sargsyan, clearly stated that the RPA was supportive of Tigran Sargsyan’s Government.
In his interview with NEWS.am. Sharmazanov called for not seeking disagreements between the foreign policies implemented by the second and third presidents. “We must unite round President Serzh Sargsyan, look forward and implement the decisions that will meet the Armenian side’s interests, ensuring Nagorno-Karabakh’s immediate participation in the negotiations,” Sharmazanov said. That was his response to the explanations given the mass media by Victor Soghomonyan, Head of Robert Kocharyan’s office. He pointed out that “the negotiation format with Nagorno-Karabakh representatives’ participation was put an end to a year before Robert Kocharyan was elected Armenian President.” Soghomonyan designated as unfounded the claims that Robert Kocharyan ousted Nagorno-Karabakh from the negotiations. “Narrow-minded people often do it – they are far from Nagorno-Karabakh, both practically and emotionally,” Soghomonyan said, meaning some of the RPA members, who had addressed Robert Kocharyan’s role in the ousting of Nagorno-Karabakh from the negotiations.
As expected, Robert Kocharyan’s attempts to return to big politics – which are mere attempts, not an official declaration of his intentions – evoked a strongly negative reaction by the Armenian Opposition. Both the parliamentary and extra-parliamentary opposition forces – the Heritage Party and the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan — were unanimous about it. Since 1998, various Armenian opposition forces have been accusing the then President Robert Kocharyan of initiating the process of ousting Nagorno-Karabakh from the negotiations. This card has always been played in domestic political struggle.
The ANC expressed confidence that the reason for Robert Kocharyan’s intensified activities is his wish to “right himself,” as “he has to do with the slaughter in Yerevan on March 1, 2008.” Moreover, the extra-parliamentary Opposition forecasts intensification of domestic political processes within the next 1-2 months as a result of active developments round the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The former foreign minister of Armenia, ANC member Alexander Arzumanyan voiced a similar opinion. “The incumbent Armenian authorities are playing the fool, waiting for an ass to choose between two bundles of hay,” he said. Arzumanyan added that the authorities are ready to do anything to retain power.
Stepan Safaryan, Chairman of the Heritage parliamentary faction, was severely critical of the ex-president’s steps. According to him Robert Kocharyan’s attempts to become Armenian Premier with external forces’ help failed. “During his Moscow, Paris and Tehran ‘tours’ Robert Kocharyan tried to enlist the countries’ support in achieving his aim. But the ex-president failed not only in the international, but also in the domestic political, arena. To get the post Robert Kocharyan provoked ferment within the ruling coalition, but he failed as well,” Safaryan said. He stated that the ex-president does not have any chance to return to big politics. “I do not at all consider any possibility of public support for Kocharyan’s return to politics,” Safaryan said.
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and region
This week the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs finished their regional visit. They held negotiations with the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh leaders.
In their joint official statement on the visit results the international mediators welcomed the parties’ commitment to a peaceful settlement of the conflict on the basis of the Madrid principles. RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward Nalbandyan held a meeting with the mediators. The sides discussed the latest developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The mediators informed the Armenian FM of the results of their meetings with the Nagorno-Karabakh leaders. Speaking of the recent speculations about the Madrid principles, Minister Nalbandyan said: “Armenia accepted the Madrid Principles as a basis for negotiations two years ago, and they continue such.”
The Russian Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group made a number of contradictory statements on the disagreements over a number of points in the Madrid principles between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Stepanakert, Yuri Merzlyakov stated that the Armenian side disagreed with some points. It is unclear, however, what Mr. Merzlyakov meant by the “Armenian side” – the Nagorno-Karabakh leaders or both. Merzlyakov also stated that the sides continued disagreeing over four points in the Madrid principles.
Talking with Armenian journalists in Yerevan, Mr. Merzlyakov spoke in a somewhat different vein. He refuted the statements he had allegedly made that the Armenian side agreed to the Madrid principles two years ago, but it is clear now that it was not full consent. “They must report all that was stated, without interpreting, as it was done by the journalist in Nagorno-Karabakh. A shorthand of my words is available,” Merzlyakov said. As regards the alleged statement that that side reached an agreement on the Madrid principles except for four points, he said: “Nothing of the kind has ever been said.” At their meeting with the RA Foreign Minister the OSCE MG Co-Chairs did not discuss any specific wordings.
So it is unclear what was discussed at the OSCE MG Co-Chairs’ meetings with the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh leaders. If, according to the joint statement, the negotiations are going on within the Madrid principles, how is it that specific wordings were not discussed in Stepanakert and Yerevan?
The United States intends to cause progress in the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation process, which is actually facing a failure. Washington plans to exert active efforts at the Nuclear Summit on April 12-13. RA President Serzh Sargsyan has accepted U.S. President Barack Obama’s invitation to take part in the Summit. The Armenian leader is also to participate in bilateral meetings. As regards Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan, who made a demarche by recalling the Turkish Ambassador to the U.S. and later retreated, made long and desperate attempts to “make himself sought after,” despite the fact he was initially most unlikely to reject the U.S. leader’s invitation.
Without any specific information available, the U.S. Administration is still likely to try to arrange Armenian-Turkish meetings during the Summit. In any case the U.S. talks with the Armenian and Turkish leaders are the last chance to get things moving in the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation process. Experts and political figures are sure that the process can be “shelved” unless any progress has been made before April 24, the next anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. The Obama Administration is well aware of this as well. It is not surprising, therefore, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State the Philip Crowley stressed that the U.S. insists on Armenia and Turkey moving forward and ratifying the protocols.
We do not have to wait long. The results of the United States’ efforts will be obvious within the next two or three weeks. The fact is that the U.S. cannot in any way convince its ally, Turkey, of the necessity to stop being hostage to Azerbaijan, which is unwilling to make any concessions.
Economy and social life
On April 1, All Fools’ Day, the RA Public Services Regulatory Commission, played a practical joke on the population by approving the Armrosgazprom Company’s application for a 37.5% rise in the gas price. From April 1, individual consumers will have to pay 132 AMD per cubic meter of gas against the previous 96. Government officials’ statements that the rise in the gas price will not have any social consequences only add fuel to the fire. The recent rise in the prices for meat and other food products exacerbates the situation.
The ANC has organized a signature-gathering campaign and plans to lodge a claim against Armrosgazprom. The ANC believes the company’s application to be economically unsound and demands the revocation of the Commission’s decision be revoked in legal form. Arman Musikyan, Spokesman for ANC Chairman Levon Ter-Petrosyan, said that over 5,000 Armenian citizens have put their signatures to the claim. “This is not a final figure. According to Armenian law, the claim can be lodged a week after the decision has been enforced,” Musinyan said.
The RA Commission for celebrations of the 65th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War held a sitting chaired by RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. The Head of the Social Security Department, RA Government Staff, reported that the program was launched on March 30. The celebrations will be held in all the Armenian regions. The sitting discussed the participation of ten war veterans from Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh in the May 9 parade.
T.P.
