The agreement signed in Zurich on October 10, 2009 between Turkey and Armenia to establish diplomatic relations offers hope that some of the difficult problems in the southern Caucasus may soon be resolved, say experts of the Israel-based Institute of National Security Studies (INSS).
According to the INSS, “it seems that the compromise between Turkey and Armenia and recognition of the 1915 genocide are preconditions for Turkey entering the European Union. Turkey's admission to the EU is a problematic issue, but since Sweden, in favor of Turkey entering the EU, has served as the rotating president of the EU since early July 2009, it seems that there is now a window of opportunity for progress on this front.
”Armenia, beset by severe economic problems as a result of both the isolation imposed by Turkey and Azerbaijan and the instability in Georgia, has reportedly agreed to two major concessions. The first is Armenia’s willingness to examine the events of 1915 with historians, versus its longstanding insistent opposition to such deliberations. The Armenians have claimed that most Western historians agree that these events did in fact constitute genocide, and that any such debate would only contribute to continued Turkish denials. Second, over the years the Turks were afraid that the principle of recognizing the genocide would generate possible Armenian territorial demands in eastern Turkey. Turkey’s suspicions were also fueled by the fact that Armenia, since gaining independence in 1991, has refused to officially recognize the border between the two countries. Now it seems that as part of the protocols signed by the two countries, Armenia is prepared to recognize the demarcation. This concession is essentially of symbolic significance, because given that Armenia is much weaker than Turkey, it did not seem likely that it was able to present real demands regarding control of areas in eastern Turkey.
Despite the very achievement of an historic accord, some difficult problems remain. First, the agreement requires that both the Turkish and Armenian houses of parliament ratify the protocols… Second, Azerbaijan is opposed to a closer relationship between Turkey and Armenia as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh issue remains unresolved… Third, most Armenian organizations in the Diaspora were, and still are, adamantly opposed to any progress in Turkish-Armenian relations…
“If, however, these problems do not undermine the agreement, the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries may have widespread ramifications. First, it would apparently help accelerate the negotiations on solution for Nagorno-Karabakh. Beyond the effect that this conflict has on Armenian-Azeri relations, it also projects on the status of Russia, Armenia’s ally, in the southern Caucasus. Resolving the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would have important economic and political ramifications for the construction of pipeline routes transporting natural gas and oil in the southern Caucasus. Furthermore, this would strengthen Turkey’s status not only in negotiations with the EU but also as a regional mediator. To date, it has not been entirely clear why Turkey has assumed the role of mediator between Israel and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Syria and Iraq, when Turkey itself has still not resolved its problems with some of its neighbors. Signing and implementing the agreement with Armenia would demonstrate that today Turkey has a leadership that is capable of making meaningful political breakthroughs, and this would enhance its credibility as an effective mediator with proven capabilities in solving bilateral conflicts.”
