Domestic policy
This week has seen further metamorphosis involving the Heritage Party and its behind-the-scenes leader Raffi Hovhannisyan. After the party dissociated itself from the uncompromising Opposition, Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and a new project was “launched” to form an Opposition to “the authorities’ taste”, the Heritage Party started showing “an opposite tendency”, namely, establishing closer relations with the ANC. All of a sudden, Raffi Hovhannisyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan were reported to have met, with no detailed information on the meeting being available so far. In the context of the September “epic” within the Heritage Party marked by the expulsion of the members close to the ANC, a Hovhannisyan-Ter-Peyrosyan meeting seemed impossible, but it is an accomplished fact now.
The meeting coincided with the latest statements made by Heritage Party Board member Armen Martirosyan, who believes cooperating with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun (ARFD) does not all mean forming a political alliance. As it had been expected, the demand for the Armenian President’s resignation proved to be a stumbling block to even closer relations between the 12 parties that signed a joint statement against the Armenian-Turkish protocols. The Heritage Party and the New Times Party openly demanded Serzh Sargsyan’s resignation, whereas the ARFD is still unable to “give birth to” a similar decision. Through Head of its Central Office Levon Zurabyan, the ANC has welcomed the Heritage Party’s strongly-worded statement, which contained arguments against the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols substantiated by doubts concerning Serzh Sargsyan’s legitimacy and the burden of the authorities’ responsibility for the tragic events on March 1, 2008.
It should be noted that the explicitly mentioned post-election processes may frustrate the political plan to form a constructive Opposition, as, unlike the Heritage Party, the ARFD has always charged the Opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan with the tragic events on March 1, 2008, to say nothing of the fact that it formed part of the ruling coalition just before the authorities started a strong-arm operation. In the near future the public may witness new political “drifts” of the Heritage Party, with its reputation tarnished by a big domestic political scandal this September and a tragicomic story involving Raffi Hovhannisyan’s resignation from and later return to the Armenian Parliament. All the recent metamorphoses of the Heritage Party suggest one more conclusion: the September domestic political scandal witnessed by the public may prove to be only the tip of the iceberg, and new undercurrents may be revealed, which made or may still be making Raffi Hovhannisyan switch political camps, regularly cooperating with such antagonists as the ARFD and ANC.
The date of the first court sitting to consider the Nikol Pashinyan case has been announced. Nikol Pashinyan is Editor-in-Chief of the opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak and one of the major “characters” of last year’s post-election processes and ardent supporter of the ANC leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The first court sitting is to be held on October 20. The case will be tried by Judge Mnatsakan Martirosyan, who is famous for a number of sensational political trials. Thus, the Armenian authorities ignored the local and international journalist communities’ appeals for releasing Pashinyan without any delay and preferred an obviously notorious trial. Moreover, one gets the impression that the Armenian authorities are seeking to cause the public to draw parallels with the recently collapsed Seven Case. Under pressure by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) the charges were dismissed and the accused, except for Sasun Mikaelyan, amnestied. Like the persons involved in the Seven Case, Nikol Pashinyan will be sitting in the bulletproof booth. Of course, releasing a bitter political opponent would be too bold a step on the Armenian authorities’ part. The upcoming trial, with accusations against the Armenian authorities for their actions during the tragic events on March 1, 2008, will again bring back to the public memory the issue of responsibility for the death of people during the dispersion of the March 1 rallies of protest – the responsibility resting with high-ranking officials and law-enforcers. In any case, the matter will remain topical as long as those responsible and actual perpetrators of murders remain unidentified and unpunished. However, prompting even bitter criticism on the part of Opposition will hardly contribute to public accord, which would not be “out of place” in the context of the crucial stage of the Armenia-Turkey normalization process and intensified Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.
The number of the Opposition-declared political prisoners is down to 17 now. This Friday, the Prosecution proposed changing the restraint imposed on the human rights activist Arshaluis Hakobyan, who acted as observer at the May 31 municipal elections. He was charged with using violence against a policeman. Besides the Armenian Opposition, a number of international human rights organizations demanded his immediate release.
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region
This week has seen the summary of signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. Football and oriental hospitality shows are over. From now on, the sides are supposed to make actual steps to normalize their relations.
Before the October 14 football match and the Armenian President’s visit to Turkey on that occasion, numerous statements were made, both in Ankara and in Yerevan, intended for the uncompromising sections of the population. The statements made by Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu evoked official Yerevan’s response. The parliamentary majority leader Galust Sahakyan was the first to make a number of statements. Considering the alignment of political forces in the Armenian Parliament, it is the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) that will finally decide for or against ratifying the protocols. At a press conference Sahakyan reminded the journalists of the repeatedly voiced idea that “it was Turkey that closed its border with Armenia so it is Turkey that is to open it.” In this context, the RPA faction leader gave assurances that the Armenian Parliament will put the issue on the agenda only after the protocols have been approved by the Turkish Parliament. It is clear now that the documents are to be submitted to the Turkish Parliament next week for the Parliament leadership to fix the ratification date. The general tone of the statements issued by the Armenian and Turkish Establishments makes it clear that – if no problems arise – the process will be successfully completed by the end of this month. Therefore, the Armenian-Turkish border may be reopened before the end of this year.
The Armenian President’s much-talked-of visit to Turkey, as had been expected, passed off without any serious problems. Although the large Azerbaijani community in Bursa did its best to spoil the atmosphere in the city, the security measures were sufficient to “neutralize” its actions, as well as the local nationalists’ provocations. As regards the “reciprocal hissing” at the national anthems by most of the football fans (the Turkish anthem was hissed at in Yerevan, and the Armenian anthem in Bursa), it shows what a long way both the nations have to pass to create at least a tolerable atmosphere for coexisting in the region and having a common border.
This week has confirmed the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents’ substantial disagreements over the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Before leaving for Moscow early this week, Serzh Sargsyan stressed that at his recent meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart he discussed the status of Nagorno-Karabakh rather than territorial issues. Simultaneously with the still-successful Armenia-Turkey normalization process, Azerbaijan issued new warlike statements, which are by no means in harmony with the growing optimism of international mediators and high-ranking European officials. This Thursday, at a commission ceremony of a residential building for disabled veterans of the Karabakh war, President Ilham Aliyev expressed the confidence that Azerbaijan will regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeri leader was not contented with that statement intended for the disabled veterans and their relatives. This Friday he once again began to tell the same old story about the Azeri army’s might and Azerbaijan’s economic advantages over Armenia. “Only the first stage of the war was finished,” Aliyev said. Really, the Azeri leader’s statements are nothing but an attempt to “comfort” his people while the conviction that no progress in the Armenian-Turkish relations is impossible as long as Azerbaijan’s territories remain occupied" is being shaken before their very eyes. Azerbaijani parliamentarians’ visit to Ankara was also evidence of official Baku’s growing concern. During their visit, everywhere, including a political talk show, they were beseeching everybody not to open the border with Armenia as long as the territories remained “occupied.”
All the official statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem made in Armenia and Azerbaijan suggest the following two conclusions: the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is seriously regressing or, at the final stage of the process and under the watchful eye of the key geopolitical players and official international observers, the sides do not inform the public of the details of an agreement being drafted. If the second is right, the question is: who and when will prepare the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples for painful concessions?
Economy and social life
Several companies from the Kharkov region of Ukraine can implement a comprehensive modernization program at the Armenian nuclear-power plant (NPP). At their meeting with RA Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan, Ukrainian specialists introduced their achievements in the energy field. The modernization program at the Armenian NPP was proposed by Head of the Kharkov regional administration Arsen Avakov. Victor Subbotin, Director General of the Turoaton OJSC, stated that the company is ready to participate in the program, which will prolong the NPP’s operating for 20 years more. The businessmen also reaffirmed their readiness to take part in a contest for delivery of equipment for a new NPP in Armenia.
The Armrosgazprom Company confirmed Russian media reports on Armenian-Russian negotiation over a reduction of the prices for Russian gas supplied to Armenia next year.
“We cannot make any comments. All the other issues are dealt with at the presidential level,” Shushan Sardaryan, Armrosgazprom Press Secretary told NEWS.am.
Armenia and the Gaspromexport Company signed a long-term contract setting the terms of gas supply to Armenia for 2009-2015. Under the contract, the gas price for Armenia is to be gradually raised. This January-March Armenia received Russian gas at U.S. $100 for 1,000 cubic meters, from April 1, 2009, the price was raised up to U.S. $154. This rate is to be in effect until March 31, 2010. From April 1, 2010, the price was to reach U.S. $200 for 1,000 cubic meters.
From January 15 to October 1, 2009, the Armenian Government’s programs were implemented 99.3%, David Sargsyan, Head of the RA Government staff stated at the Government’s sitting. According to him, 134 of the 184 previously elaborated projects were selected for implementation, and 133 were actually implemented. RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that large-scale redistribution of funds is typical of this year. Specifically, 90bn AMD expenditures were carried forward to the 4th quarter, some projects were postponed and the Government’s annual programs were amended. Considering the above, the Premier thinks the program performance level is quite good.
Lufthansa has stopped flights to Armenia. The decision is in conformity with the policy of reducing the number of flights by 7.4%. The new schedule will be in effect from October 25, 2009, to March 27, 2010. Over the recent months, Lufthansa has stopped making flights to Bristol (Great Britain), Ufa (Russia) and Portland (USA). A representative of an airline in Yerevan, however, said the main reason for the airline’s refusal to continue its activities in Armenia is unprofitable flights and high aircraft servicing costs at the Zvartnost airport in Yerevan. According to him, the servicing cost for one plane in Armenia is U.S. $5,000, whereas it is twice as low in Georgia. “This is the case with Lufthanza and Air Arabian. As regards Aeroflot and Air France, they will continue making flights under intergovernmental agreements,” the source said.
