Potential solution of the Serdar-Kapaz oil field dispute involving Turkmenistan-and Azerbaijan is very far to reach, Italian political analyst Fabio Indeo told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

Reserves of Serdar-Kapaz oil field challenged by two countries are estimated at 50 million tons.

In spite of the relevant interests for both to find a solution, by means of the development of a bilateral energy strategy aimed to Western markets, a rooted mistrust and geopolitical ambitions are currently hindering a shared approach.

“Consequently even the so called improvements in Azeri-Turkmen relations must be cautiously interpreted. In 2010 the Turkmen decision to participate (even if Ashgabat contribute with small oil exports) within the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (which transport mainly Azeri oil to Western markets) could represent a significant step in order to enhance their cooperation and a shared exploitation in the offshore energy fields in the Caspian Sea.

Moreover, the EU decision to try engaging Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in a tripartite agreement in order to realize the southern corridor could potentially link these countries in a lucrative energy cooperation with EU,” the expert said.

According to him, this evolution is severely setting back not only by several geopolitical reasons – such as the Russian traditional role and influence in the energy field, the unsolved status of the Caspian sea – but also by bilateral and internal causes: indeed, both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan would like to affirm as a privileged partner for the EU, because of fully conscious of the strategic relevance for the EU to implement a diversification strategy, and try to maximize this situation.

“Azerbaijan appears in a privileged position thanks to its geographic position as an “energy bridge” and transit country for Caspian exports, while Turkmenistan suffers from its landlocked condition which should constrain Ashgabat to export energy through Baku’s territory and infrastructure,” he said.