Domestic policy
The regular congress of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) this Saturday is to become a major event of this week. Although it is a regular congress, with no serious personnel changes on agenda, this party forum is of special interest in the context of intensifying Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes. The RPA Chairman, RA President Serzh Sargsyan is expected to give answers to numerous questions of lively public interest. Specifically, experts expect the Armenian leader to make appraisals of further steps to normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations, public fears of unfavorable tendencies in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, unity of the ruling coalition in the context of deepening differences between the RPA and the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) as well as the signs of the ex-president Robert Kocharyan’s “heightened activities.” Let us hope that the ruling party’s congress will not remain a show, but will provide answers to the questions of public concern.
One of the outstanding representatives of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), Vahan Hovhannisyan, showed journalists the “pain and anguish” of the political camp that is looking forward to Robert Kocharyan’s return to politics. His statements reflect his sincere concern over the ex-president’s behavior during his interview with a news agency, when he did not make any political appraisals. The ARF member actually “gave up” the fact that the part of Armenia’s Establishment discontented with the Armenia-Turkey normalization process has been looking for Robert Kocharyan’s criticism against his successor Serzh Sargsyan.
This tendency can be viewed in the context of differences within the ruling camp, which do not show any signs of getting slighter. The circles close to the Government keep on talking about not only the confrontation between the RPA led by Serzh Sargsyan and the PAP led by the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, Robert Kocharyan’s protégé, but also within the RPA. To dispel the rumors about disagreements, the RPA initiated the admission of high-ranking officials, including ministers, just on the threshold of its congress. Of course, strengthening the chain of command is “a common occurrence” in Armenia, but the recent developments within the power camp show President Serzh Sargsyan’s vigorous efforts to consolidate his team, which, of course, has its reasons.
In any case, tension within the power camp is getting obvious – on occasions now. It is only in case the external factor gets strong enough that this tension may show itself. Such a factor may be unfavorable developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.
The authorized representatives of Nikol Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper on trial, presented documents for his registration as a parliamentary candidate to Election Commission #10. The commission is to register the candidate from December 1 to 6. And now it is only a court verdict that may prevent Pashinyan from running for Parliament. Once and again Election District #10 springs a surprise: the nomination of the opposition candidate Suren Surenyants, which ended in his refusal to accept his nomination, had for a long time attracted public attention due to talks about disagreements within the Opposition ranks; later, Eduard Madatyan, the former government member, was denied a permanent residence certificate. He was a “secret” nominee from the ruling coalition. Another candidate, the actor Vladimir Kostanyan, has refused to continue the election campaign as well. Kostanyan repeatedly voiced his support for the authorities, but, as he stated later, he did not want to interfere in the Government-Opposition confrontation.
Thus, the ranks of Nikol Pashinyan’s rivals at the by-election are thinning out. We can be sure that the election district, a major part of the Kentron (Center) community of Yerevan, will spring new surprises before January 10. It should be noted that the argument in favor of the Government’s consent to the extra-parliamentary Opposition mouthpiece’s entry to Parliament does not sound convincing. A much more convincing argument is that the authorities have just got confused with the by-elections in Election District #10, as they did not initially plan the episode with a residence certificate for Nikol Pashinyan. What are their further steps? Time will show soon.
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region
This week has been marked by the “digestion” of the results of the latest meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents, Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, in Munich.
The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs were the first to state progress. “During the sixth meeting this year the two Presidents held a thorough discussion of the most important issues incorporated in the Co-Chairs’ proposals that have so far remained unsettled. The talks that have lasted for almost four hours have proved constructive. Progress in some issues has been registered. On the other hand, some issues still remain unsettled,” the international mediators said, leaving some room for retreat in case of stagnation in the negotiation process. As preparations for the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers’ meeting are under way (the two FMs are to meet within the framework of the OSCE Foreign Ministers’ Council in Athens on December 1-2), Baku is resorting to provocations aimed to torpedo a peaceful settlement.
One of them was the disinformation on the Armenian side’s consent to withdraw troops from the Kelbajar region this December, whereas, according to the all information available at the moment, the first stage provides for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from only five regions. As regards Kelbajar and Lachin, the issue can only be put on the agenda in five years provided the sides remain committed to all the agreements. After getting “their nose snapped off” by international organizations for Ilham Aliyev’s bellicose statements on the threshold of the Munich meeting, the Azerbaijani authorities have not calmed down and are now trying to provoke a crisis in the Armenian society by spreading disinformation on the Armenian authorities’ ungrounded concessions in the negotiation process. Their actions can only be viewed as efforts to hinder progress in the negotiations.
It is very hard for the Aliyev clan to bear the geopolitical changes aimed at establishing peace in the region. Baku is making regular statements that resemble “recurrences” of the long-lasting policy of sowing hatred in the Caucasus. What is more, the Azerbaijani authorities have got confused in their attitude to the key geopolitical players, which are now showing a tendency toward the soonest settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (the last evidence thereof is the postponed discussion of the draft resolution on the situation in Azerbaijan’s occupied territories at the UN General Assembly. The draft resolution was submitted by Azerbaijan). After the fits of hysteria about the Armenian-Turkish protocols signed in Zurich were over in Baku – they even stopped taking Turkish flags down there – the officials and experts at the service of Aliyev clan now and then slate the West and Russia.
The Azerbaijani Establishment is “infinitely flexible”: after they have accused Moscow of their own defeat in the Karabakh war and of supporting Armenian “occupants” for 15 year, the Azerbaijani authorities have now turned their eyes on the same Kremlin. Ilham Aliyev must be viewing Russia as the only factor that may slow down the progress in the negotiations, but it is more like a step of despair. Baku is trying to ignore RF President Dmitry Medvedev’s recent statement on similar attitudes to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shown by Russia and the West. The Russian leader’s statements show that the Kremlin has most likely put up with a changed status quo in the South Caucasus, which certainly implies a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by means of mutual painful concessions.
It must be realizing the inevitable concessions, particularly agreeing to a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, that makes the Azerbaijani authorities fall into the arms of Russia and then of the West. This week Baku has carried its efforts to extremes: without restricting themselves to showing their traditional resentment at “all and sundry,” Azerbaijani parliamentarians do not rule out the possibility of the country’s joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for the purpose of getting Russia to increase its pressure on Armenia.
To all the provocations of the Azerbaijani authorities before and after the Munich meeting, official Yerevan gave a brief response, which, however, contained a big threat. Commenting on the Azeri side’s bellicose statements, RA Presidential Spokesman Samvel Farmanyan stated: “In case of such developments numerous options are available. One of them is the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia with all the ensuing consequences. Or Armenia can sign a mutual assistance agreement with Nagorno-Karabakh. Numerous options are available, and I am sure Armenia will take one or several of them.” Farmanyan also stressed that Armenia has not so far recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state for the only reason that it might have affected the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.
Economy and social life
A total of U.S. $16m have been donated for the rehabilitation work in Shushi, Nagorno-Karabakh. Among the participants in the telethon held by the Hayastan All-Armenian Fund in Los Angeles, USA, were Ara Vartanian, Executive Director of the Fund, NKR Prime Minister Ara Harutyunyan, Head of the Artsakh diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Archbishop Pargev Martirosyan. The donations will be channeled to the rehabilitation of the city and rural communities as well as to national projects. The amount also includes the U.S. $5.29m raised at a charity dinner in Moscow attended by RA President Serzh Sargsyan. The Hayastan All-Armenia Fund was established in 1992 for the purpose of developing infrastructures in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The Board of Trustees headed by the Armenian President includes representatives of the Armenian Diaspora. The only question to ask is: why did the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh authorities suddenly remember the necessity for restoring the Shushi infrastructure now?
RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan chaired a meeting that discussed a program of improving the funding of Armenia’s health system. Attended by the managers of a number of large medical institutions, the meeting discussed the reforms, problem of illegal medical services and medical insurance. The Premier pointed out that the reforms are supposed to resolve the financial problems of the health system. He said that the Government must be able to reduce corruption risks by paying the market price for medical services rendered to the population.
In January-October 2009, 3,500 foreign citizens applied to the Armenian authorities for dual citizenship – a 2.5-fold increase as compared with the corresponding period last year. RA Minister of Diaspora Hranush Hakobyan reported that most of the applicants have ties with Armenia, and many of them are clergymen. A simplified procedure of granting dual citizenship to Armenians will soon take effect.
