As part of what it calls the “largest” sanctions package against Russia since the start of the war, the European Union will impose restrictions on Belarus’s oil refineries, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. “Our targets included more than 100 banks and crypto operators, more than 40 shadow fleet vessels, and several oil refineries in Russia and Belarus,” Kallas wrote on X. She noted that the sanctions list includes 218 entries in total, among them 50 defense enterprises, including manufacturers of long-range drones. At the same time, Kallas stressed that this is “not the end of the road” and that the EU is already working on new sanctions.

Belarus has two refineries — Mozyr and Novopolotsk. Together, they can process 24 million tons per year. This allows Belarus to meet its own needs and supply petroleum products to the Russian market as well as to other countries. After a fuel crisis broke out in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes on oil plants, Moscow increased fuel purchases from Minsk to a historic record. In June, gasoline deliveries from Belarusian refineries to the Russian market exceeded 181,000 tons, three times more than in May (77,000 tons), Reuters reported, citing industry sources. Overall, in the first half of the year, gasoline purchases from Belarus surged twentyfold to 453,000 tons.

Imports of diesel fuel from Belarus also grew fivefold in January–June, reaching 256,000 tons. In addition, more than 16,000 tons of Belarusian aviation fuel were shipped to Russia in June — three times more than in May. At the same time, gasoline from Belarus is significantly more expensive than Russian gasoline: it costs about 111,000 rubles per ton of AI-92 and 124,000 rubles per ton of AI-95. For comparison, wholesale prices on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange as of July 23 stood at 71,790 and 76,380 rubles respectively.

Meanwhile, supplies from Belarus are unlikely to significantly alter the balance of the Russian fuel market, economist Kirill Rodionov noted. According to him, Belarusian refineries produce about 3.5 million tons of gasoline per year — less than the Omsk refinery alone (5 million tons), while Belarus exports about 2.3 million tons annually — less than Russia consumes in a single month. In total, the Russian authorities planned to buy 400,000 tons of gasoline abroad every month. In addition to Belarus, purchases have also begun from India, which became the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil after the war with Ukraine began.