The Armenian-Trkish border will not be reopened before next April, the STRATFOR analyst Marko Papic said in his interview with 1news.az. Turkey is a key player in the region, and much depends on what it is doing. If Turkey goes on normalizing its relations with Armenia without prior consultations with Azerbaijan, it may cause a serious crisis next year, Papic said.

According to him, the Nagorno-Karabakh problems will be a key regional problem next year. Numerous disagreements over the Caucasus are emerging at the global level. Nagorno-Karabakh may prove to be a justification for a conflict similar to one that occurred in Bosnia province just before World War I in 1914, Papic said.

According to him, it depends on whether Turkey wants to strike a deal with Armenia without Azerbaijan being involved and whether Russia allows Azerbaijan to make use of its military advantage to get Nagorno-Karabakh back. As regards forecasts for next year, Papic pointed out that Turkey is filling its niche in the world and turning from a regional player into a global one.

Turkey’s “moves” towards Armenia are deigned to expand its influence over the Caucasus and father, Central Asia, Papic said.

As regards Iran, he pointed out that, if the United States is planning to stifle Teheran by means of petrol sanctions, it must make sure that other states, that is Russia, will not supply oil by means of alternative routes (though Azerbaijan or Turkey). If the United States continues applying sanctions without Russia’s consent, Azerbaijan may turn into the main route for supplying petrol to Iran, which is fraught with disagreements between Washington and Moscow, as well as with Baku.

T.P.