YEREVAN. – The border incident in Karabakh conflict zone are not reflecting potential of the armies, political analyst Sergey Minasyan told reporters on Thursday.

“The current tension is nothing new. Azerbaijan occasionally aggravates the situation, pursuing two objectives: to show opposition to the status quo, but at the same time slowing down the negotiation process. The second task is to try to present some seriousness of its militaristic threats. With the incidents and weapons purchases, Baku tries to influence Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, international community and OSCE in order to achieve unilateral concessions,” the analyst said.

It is clear that both objectives are not achieved, but the number of victims is increasing. At the same time Minasyan believes the threat of large-scale hostilities is unlikely, as it requires serious advantage of Azerbaijani side.

“Besides, there are no preconditions for the international community to agree to such steps,” he added.

Sergey Minasyan said the best assessment of Armenian army is the fact  that ceasefire has been maintained for over 20 years.

“If Azerbaijan had little doubt that they could win, they would immediately launch hostilities despite the international community's stance. Saving peace is a result of a balance of power. Azerbaijan uses its oil and gas resources and increases the arms race. But Armenia has alternative methods, including bilateral cooperation with Russia and cooperation within CSTO. I am confident that Armenian Armed Forces and the NKR Defense Army are the most battle-worthy structures in the South Caucasus,” Minasyan noted, forecasting serious problem for Azerbaijani military budget in the coming years.

As for the international community's response to the ongoing incidents, the most effective way would be deployment of peacekeepers.  In this context, the expert noted that neither the conflicting parties, nor the mediators are aspiring for peacekeepers, given that it may lead to strengthening of one of the parties.

“The situation  with the incident will change when Azerbaijan realizes that dispute cannot be solved from a position of strength. Especially for society in Azerbaijan, which incurs heavy losses, the situation is even more difficult,” he concluded.

Photo by Arsen Sargsyan/NEWS.am