The protocols recently signed between Turkey and Armenia envisaging the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the opening of their land border to commercial and tourist traffic and the investigation of historical disputes by a joint commission symbolize a historic step forward for both countries and for international peace, political analyst Birol Akgyun says in Zaman daily, October 14.

The article reads, “The tension and unease and the unpleasant developments before the signing ceremony shall be remembered solely as historic nuances. The Armenian and Turkish states have signed a bilateral international agreement for the first time since 1921. Despite opposition by the Dashnaks in Armenia as well as the Diaspora groups and rightist and leftist parties in the Turkish Parliament, the brave stance and attitude of the leaders of both countries will be appreciated and properly credited in time.

Leaving aside pessimistic realists who argue that interstate relations are inherently anarchical in the international system and that a power struggle constitutes the core of foreign policy, what is normal between two countries sharing the same borders is the development of economic and commercial ties and the establishment of diplomatic relations between the same two countries. Despite the emotional burden of history and the mutual distrust between the two nations, Turkey and Armenia could not have resisted this crude fact dictated by geopolitics. There were two reasons and factors for Turkey to cultivate ties with Armenia: the accusation by the Armenian Diaspora against the Turkish nation and Turkey arguing that the Ottoman Empire committed Genocide against Armenians in 1915 and bitter and aggressive political propaganda spread to force Turkey to accept the Genocide claims. The Armenian allegations have caused serious troubles for Turkey in the international arena.

Secondly, Armenia has occupied about 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory since 1993. Turkey closed its borders with Armenia to protest this aggression. However, Turkey has developed and improved its ties with all other countries in the Middle East and the Caucasus. This is an approach summarized by a motto of Davutoğlu’s: &‘zero problems with neighbors.’ Armenia has been the only exception to the policy of improving ties with nearby countries including Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Iran, Syria and Iraq. For Turkey, which has stood out as a protector of peace in the region and assumed a crucial role as the speaker and representative of underdeveloped countries in the UN and the G-20, it would be only natural to enhance its relations with Armenia for the sake of consistency and compatibility with the policy briefly outlined above. Turkey has aborted the only trump card held by the Armenian Diaspora by signing the protocols. When the process finishes, Armenia will be rid of its economic and geopolitical isolation. However, it will have to deal with growing pressure from the international community on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Most probably, Turkey and Armenia will be two good friends and neighbors in a few years at most.

All these optimistic predictions are based on the assumption that the global, regional and internal dynamics will remain the same. The unwritten condition for the implementation of the protocols for Turkey is a lasting and just solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Sadly, Turkey is a passive actor in this matter. For progress in the issue, the pressures of big powers including the EU, US and Russia over Armenia will be determinative. Turkey has gained leverage with respect to the Armenian question vis-à-vis the US, EU and the international community by signing the protocols. The approaching elections may delay full implementation of the protocols for a few years; however, the natural course of the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia will lead to the normalization of relations. Neither Ankara nor Yerevan is able to resist the weight of political vectors inclusive of history, geography and international power balances as well as the interests of the nations. Turkey will grow further as it resolves its issues. We have to focus on the future with hope and caution by stripping off the burden of the past.”