Two days ago a document appeared on the web, which is allegedly discussed by Yerevan, Baku, Ankara and Washington. The document was reportedly discussed on September 27, 2022 in Washington during the meeting of Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, Azerbaijani President's aide Hikmet Hajiyev and US President's national security advisor Jake Sullivan. It is also alleged that the paper was the key topic of conversation between Pashinyan, Aliyev and Erdogan in Prague as well. The United States is said to be the organizer of the discussions. The following condition is included as a possible clause of the probable agreement: "The Azerbaijani government will appoint a representative to work with a similar representative of the Armenian ethnic community of Nagorno-Karabakh and discuss the rights and security of the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh. The representatives will ensure the transparency of the discussions to the international community. The sides will also jointly discuss the role of international observers, without prejudice to Azerbaijani sovereignty, and to ensure the protection of the minority group in Nagorno-Karabakh.

And who benefits from this?

The statement of November 9, 2020 was signed, three or four more documents regulating the relations between Armenia and Russia were signed, a joint commission on delimitation and demarcation at the level of deputy prime ministers started working, foreign ministers meet periodically, the leaders of the states meet at different platforms. Against this background, since the start of the latest complications on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Russia, according to Russian political analyst and expert on the problems of the Middle East and the Caucasus, Stanislav Tarasov, has made colossal efforts to stop the fighting. "Against this backdrop, we see a joint diplomacy of the West," the expert said in an interview with NEWS.am.

In that case, who benefits from the draft treaty, which is under the patronage of the West? "Logically, if someone mediates, it must be Russia, in the first place. It turns out that all the agreements signed with the participation of Russia are privatized by the West.

The treaty is advantageous to whoever drafts the text of the document. Who is satisfied with the text of the document? Azerbaijan outlined its five principles, and said that we are ready to negotiate a peace treaty only under these conditions. What does this mean? If we cannot agree on the possibility of dialogue, how can we divide the fence in this case? The Armenian side, first of all, developed the idea of demilitarizing the border. This is an anomaly, because the problem of border delimitation and demarcation is always a part of a peace treaty," the political scientist stressed. According to Tarasov's assessment, Azerbaijan considers Karabakh as its territory, and Armenia is negotiating on those terms, which means that Armenia has agreed to the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan together with Karabakh.

Why is Armenia playing on western platforms?

Tarasov is sure that Yerevan thereby wants to reanimate the OSCE MG with the help of France, the US and the EU and determine the status of Karabakh. "The question arises: how can you define a territory that is no longer yours? Armenia wants an international mandate and to give Karabakh a special status within Azerbaijan. Aliyev in this situation wants either to expel Armenians from Karabakh or to dissolve them among Azerbaijanis. Aliyev will not be allowed to do either one or the other. He is forced to introduce some kind of autonomy. With whom can he do this? There are two options. The first one is that Aliyev can agree with Russia on the status of peacekeepers in Karabakh, which they do not have there yet; he can prolong their stay; he can hand them over under the CIS flag under temporary administration, given the readiness of the organization to do this, as Lavrov said recently. But Aliyev plays the game of Pashinyan in the Western direction because limitation of Russia's influence in Karabakh is beneficial for him," the political analyst explains.

According to him, both Pashinyan and Aliyev could be equally interested in it. But, under certain conditions, Aliyev is interested in Russian presence in this region because of serious geopolitics, as well as because of the events in Iran.

Tarasov considers the likelihood of signing a peace treaty by the end of the calendar year to be high. "There is a suspicion that it will be signed not in Moscow, not with the mediation of Russia, but with the mediation of the West. The Armenians are playing this game. After the second Karabakh war, this could be Armenia's second tragic defeat if the sides do not agree on the status of Karabakh," Tarasov concluded.

Aram Danielyan