On September 8, French Prime Minister François Bayrou will face a vote of confidence in parliament. The likelihood of failure is very high: at the end of August, many parties (the left-wing La France Insoumise, the far-right National Rally, and the Socialists) announced that they would not support Bayrou. To win the vote of confidence, the prime minister needs at least 288 votes, which seems unrealistic at this point, according to Euronews. 

It is noteworthy that it was the prime minister himself who proposed holding a vote of confidence, against the backdrop of growing socio-economic tensions in France. The stumbling block in his dialogue with the opposition was the budget plan for 2026. It provides for a sharp reduction in the deficit from 5.8% in 2024 to less than 4.6%, which will require significant spending cuts, a freeze on indexation, and possibly the introduction of new taxes. Bairu intends to save the treasury about €44 billion. One of the most unpopular points of his plan is the reduction of two public holidays out of 11.

The prime minister considers his plan necessary to keep the debt “at a sustainable level,” but parliament calls it overly strict and socially unjust. Mass protests have been announced for September 10 and 18. Some politicians are ready to go further. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, has announced that he will initiate proceedings to remove Emmanuel Macron from office on September 23.

The current prime minister is already the sixth during Macron's term. If Bayrou resigns, the president will have to either appoint a new one or dissolve parliament.