Domestic policy

After a long interval, this week has proved to be a politically eventful one. The pro-government camp’s intensified activities have been a distinctive feature in contrast to its usual passivity and responses to the Opposition’s accusations. This time, Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharyan personally responded to the Opposition leader Levot Ter-Petrosyan. Robert Kocharyan’s appearance in public is within the context of his repeated attempts to return to politics.

The statements made by Robert Kocharyan, who, as usual, resorted to insulting his political opponent, without making any specific political appraisals, are of no special interest. Another matter is the disappointment felt by few of Robert Kocharyan’s supporters, who form part of the Establishment. For months “Kocharyan’s people” had been waiting for their “icon” to give a serious and well-argued response to the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols and the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, but Kocharyan only confined himself to stories about recent hunting in Africa thereby underlining his alienation from political life.

On the other hand, Kocharyan’s team cannot be said “to be asleep” – it is showing clear signs of political activity. Over the last few months the ex-president has been “present” on the political scene by means of his minions. The Civilitas Foundation headed by the ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian is holding regular events. However, after Oskanian was actively involved in the tragic events on March 1, 2008, the Armenian society is unwilling to accept his concern over the situation in the country as sincere statements by an independent politician.

In this context, another creature of Robert Kocharyan, the Chairman of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) and oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan “launched an offensive.” He has been actively buying the airtime of Armenian TV channels lately, and the viewers have to “enjoy” the programs about the “charity and generosity” of Mr. Tsarukyan, who is not in any way among Armenia’s largest taxpayers. What is more, PAP representatives kicked up a row at the sitting of the Yerevan Municipal Council thereby coming into an open conflict with Yerevan Mayor Gagik Beglaryan, a nominee of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and its Chairman, RA President Serzh Sargsyan. The Beglaryan-Tsarukyan confrontation stems from the elections to the Yerevan Municipal Council on May 31, when the RPA formed an overwhelming majority and laid hands on the reigns of government in the Armenian capital. Thus the RPA must have broken “a previous portfolio arrangement” with the PAP. The PAP, however, has not yet so far come into an overt conflict with the RPA.

The PAP’s recently intensified activities are in perfect harmony with Robert Kocharyan’s repeated attempts to remind the public of his presence in Armenia’s political life. Strangely enough, the Armenian authorities do not put any obstacles to the Armenian TV channels covering the activities of Gagik Tsarukyan and his party. This situation suggests that the confrontation between the two forces, which are the backbone of the ruling coalition, is an intricate combination of undercurrents.

In fact, we can state that the Serzh Sargsyan team has managed to prevent Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan from being involved in behind-the-scenes activities in case of political tension in the country as a result of unfavorable developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. This is the only plausible explanation for his sudden admission to the RPA, as well as for the subsequent statements by RPA representatives that, from now on, the Premier will not be free in expressing his political views, but will be obliged to implement the central ruling force’s policy.

The regards the opposition camp, main developments involved Nikol Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak. The developments took an unexpected course, which is evidence of the authorities’ changed tactics. At the November 19 court sitting, the Prosecution refused to call the most part of the witnesses involved in the case. It has a logical explanation: a number of political myths created by the Armenian authorities in interpreting the March 1, 2008, events were debunked by the conflicting testimonies. Almost all the witnesses “destroyed” the Prosecution’s arguments, which made the Prosecution to refuse to call the others thereby trying to speed up the proceedings.

The authorities’ “aspiration” to have a verdict returned as soon as possible can be explained. Nikol Pashinyan, who is charged with organizing riots, has been nominated as a parliamentary candidate by the Opposition at the by-elections in Election District #10 scheduled for January 10. Pashinyan can run for Parliament without any problems unless a verdict of guilty is returned before January 10. As regards the story with a certificate confirming his residence in Armenia over the last five years, it ended in a verdict obliging the local passport office to issue the relevant certificate to Pashinyan for him to be able to get registered as a candidate.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process

This week has been marked by intensive preparations for the next Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting. The numerous statements made on the international scene suggest the conclusion that the key geopolitical players, Russia, the USA and European Union (EU), have intensified the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The developments show that the international community is increasing its pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the forthcoming Armenian-Azerbaijan presidential meeting may result in a document on the fundamental settlement principles.

Although the Azerbaijani authorities’ non-constructive position may thwart the negotiation process, the geopolitical players, instead of “neutralizing” official Baku’s provocations, began making desperate efforts to achieve the results as soon as possible. The United States’ “outward passivity” confirms the suppositions that, in contrast to the Armenian-Turkish relations, Russia is the principal mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Moreover, at a news conference on the EU-Russia Summit, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a plain statement on a Russia-West consensus on the ways of settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Contrasting the disagreements over last year’s events in Georgia between Russia and the West with the “complete agreement” on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Russian leader stated: “In particular, we discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process taking place between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It has made progress. This is an example of how we can cooperate or could have cooperated but for last year’s tragedy.”

This year it is impossible to state the reason for the intensified Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes in a clearer way. But for the Russia-West agreement this spring, the Armenian-Turkish roadmap would not have been signed this April, Armenian-Turkish protocols would not have been initialed on August 31 and signed on October 10. And now that Yerevan and Ankara have to take concrete steps to ratify and start implementing the protocols, Moscow has made statements running counter to its previous ones. Let us take the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ statements just before the Armenian-Turkish protocols were signed. They denied any linkage between the Armenia-Turkey and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes On the other hand, Andrey Nesterenko, official representative of the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the following statement: “As far as we know issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh were raised during the Yerevan-Ankara negotiations. This range of issue must be considered in this process. Let us hope that all the issues will be settled in conformity with the decisions made by international organizations and meet the interests of all the nations of the region.” So it turned out that two simultaneous processes are going on, which, according to the statements made abroad, are so parallel that it can hardly be noticed.

A number of European officials also voiced their opinions on the intensifying Nagorno-Karabakh peace process on the threshold of the Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting.

The attempts made by the geopolitical players and international community to speed up the settlement of the frozen conflict and help the conflicting parties to reach a peace agreement can only be welcomed. The mediators, however, are “getting carried away”, making a fundamental mistake, which may prove too expensive to all the sides and fatal to the previous efforts and agreements. Do not they exaggerate the significance of the geopolitical factor in the sides’ making crucial decisions?

Economy and social life

Government officials go on making their assessments of the impact of the global economic crisis on Armenia, which, however, are getting less and less convincing. Let us remembers that, just of the threshold of the unprecedented economic decline, RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan even said the crisis could be of benefit to Armenia, whereas RA Minister of Finance Tigran Davtyan’s present assurances do not sound convincing. The Minister is sure that “Armenia will be ahead of others in overcoming the consequences of the financial crisis and restore its economy.” On the other hand, Armenia was not among the first to feel the consequences of the crisis, so it will be ahead of others in overcoming them though the economic decline was among the most serious in the country. “The economic decline index is a technical one reflecting the technical aspect of the situation in the country,” Davtyan said.

According to the data published this week, the poverty level rose by 2.8% in Armenia in the 2nd quarter of 2009 as compared with the corresponding period last year – up to 28.4%. A WB expert cited the figures at a presentation of a WB report on Armenia.

At the same time, despite criticism, the Armenian Government continues providing financial guarantees. It is the turn of the Norashen-2007 cooperative society now. The Government has provided it with U.S. $500,000 guarantees for three years. The aim is to attract credits for the construction of a residential building in the Achapnyak community in Yerevan.

At its sitting on November 17, the RA Commission for Protection of Economic Competition initiated proceedings against 19 major companies working on the Armenian drug market. Surveys conducted by the Commission this October-November showed rise in drug prices. The prices for anti-virus drugs as well as for drugs against cardiovascular diseases and diabetes showed a sharp rise. The Commission arrived at the conclusion that the aforementioned economic entities violate the antimonopoly laws. The Commission intends to demand documents substantiating the price rise from the importers. The companies also have to provide all the import and sales documents to the Commission. The Commission also pointed out the necessity for finding out the reasons for limited competition on Armenia’s drug market. On top of all, after swine flue cases were registered in Armenia, anti-virus medicines and hygienic masks disappeared from drugstores. And the price for TAMIFLU has been raised several times.