Economic growth in Armenia is essentially ensured on the account of several sectors, and the level of concentration in these several sectors raises certain concerns about the inclusiveness and spread of growth. The governor of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), Martin Galstyan, told this to a press conference Tuesday, and added that this was about the construction and services sectors in particular.

And regarding the possible influx to Armenia as a result of the Iran conflict, the CBA chief said: “People who may move to Armenia [from], we do not yet see in the numbers the level of amount that could lead us to the worrying situation that external demand will be so high that inflation will additionally go up [in Armenia]. Of course, we are discussing this scenario, as we did in 2022 during the first period of the Russian-Ukrainian war. There were two points of view: one was that the economic situation in Russia would deteriorate, as a result of which external demand for Armenia would be lower, and this would lead to deflationary phenomena. The second [point of view] was that, with a small probability, there could be an influx of people. At that time, none of us could predict with such a high probability that Russians would move to Armenia in large numbers. But people from Russia, as well as from countries adjacent to the conflict, moved to Armenia in a very short period of time, which led to a sudden sharp increase in inflation [in Armenia].”

“At the moment, in fact, the [Iran] conflict has been going on for almost three weeks, we [i.e. Armenia] still do not see the influx that would lead us to the idea that we will have significant inflationary pressures due to external demand. Naturally, if we do, the response will be equivalent to these developments. But we do not want to do something that does not stem from a complete understanding of the situation,” added the Armenian CBA governor.