“Public discussions of the initialed protocols between Turkey and Armenia that were released on the night of August 31 are ongoing in both countries,” Turkish Zaman daily reports.

“Initially, this development was applauded by enthusiasts and hammered by critics, with overrated hopes and fears respectively. By now, a slightly more nuanced debate is taking hold,” the source says.

“However, aspects of the protocols which have intentionally been left open to interpretation raise suspicions on both sides, and it is premature to celebrate the protocols in and of themselves. Moreover, there are many open questions one of which is Karabakh issue. The clock for implementation of the protocols will start ticking not when the protocols are signed-which is expected to take place in October-but when they are ratified. The protocols may not express a link between the implementation of the roadmap and progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh deadlock; however, it is an increasingly open secret that the Turkish side expects progress toward withdrawal from some of the occupied territories surrounding the Karabakh enclave before the protocols are brought for a vote to the floor of the Turkish Parliament. Because Karabakh is not mentioned in the protocols, the Armenian side can claim there is no &‘precondition,’ while the Turkish side can ensure Azerbaijani counterparts and Turkish skeptics that the two processes are ‘synchronized’,” the daily informs.

“The difference of wording is merely a play of words. This formula of ambiguity may have been the only way to (appear to) agree, and supposedly allows for different interpretations to be sustained; however, it also carries risks. Whether it is called a precondition or not, and whether it is presented as a fact of Turkey’s democracy or envisioned as Turkey’s grand leverage to solve frozen conflicts, Karabakh is in the mix. The scenario envisioned appears to be that the protocols will empower President Sargsyan to take a bold, albeit small, step regarding the occupied territories surrounding Karabakh, which in turn will be responded to by Turkey with a bigger step. A virtuous cycle can be set into motion, offering gains to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, in a win-win equilibrium. If the process unravels as such, the region will finally have a perspective for stability. However, Turkey also risks a serious blow to its credibility and regional interests if a step that can be framed as a breakthrough in talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not take place,” the source reports.

“The most controversial aspect of the protocols is the plan to set up a joint sub-commission on history which would work on an &‘impartial scientific examination of historical records and archives to define existing problems and formulate recommendations.’ This has been perceived as a Turkish victory. The assumption is that as long as this work is ongoing, third countries will abstain from passing parliament resolutions that label the tragic events of 1915-1917 &‘genocide.’Another objection voiced by Armenian analysts to the idea of a history commission is that it will inevitably be inconclusive, as historians on both sides-politicized as they are- will simply battle on behalf of the official line of their country. Indeed, if a verdict about history is aimed for, every step of the process is going to be fiercely debated and criticized by Armenians and Turks worldwide” the daily reads.