Two years after their last war over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be headed for a new confrontation. Russia's failures in Ukraine have upset the calculations in the region, the International Crisis Group writes.
The new war will be shorter but no less dramatic than the six-week conflict of 2020. Since then, the balance has shifted further in favor of Azerbaijan. The Armenian army has not been replenishing its troops and armaments because Russia, its traditional arms seller, lacks supplies. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is gaining ground. Its army is several times larger than that of Armenia, it is much better equipped and has the support of Turkey. Baku was also encouraged by the increased European demand for Azerbaijani gas.
In particular, the report notes that after the 2020 cease-fire, Russia deployed peacekeepers to Karabakh and reinforced its border forces and military personnel on those parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border that became the new front line after the 44-day war. The idea was that even a small Russian contingent would deter attacks on Armenia because Baku would be wary of Moscow.
After the war in Ukraine, however, these calculations did not materialize. Russian forces failed to prevent several outbreaks last year. In March and August, Azerbaijani troops seized new territories in Nagorno-Karabakh, including strategic heights. In September, the Azerbaijani military seized territory from Armenia. Terrorist attacks became more and more bloody, the International Crisis Group notes.
Experts say the war in Ukraine also overshadowed Armenian-Azerbaijani talks. According to their information, at the end of last year, Moscow accepted the European Union's petition, hoping it would strengthen Russia's peacekeeping mission. However, after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Moscow perceived Brussels' mediation as another attempt to curb Russia's influence, and no matter how much the Western capitals try to convince them otherwise, the Kremlin refuses to intervene.
As a result, two draft agreements are being circulated - one was developed by Russia, the other was developed by Armenia and Azerbaijan with the support of the West, the report notes, specifying that each of the documents concerns the restoration of communication and trade channels and the stabilization of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, leaving the fate of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh separate from the unstarted process for now.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani project, supported by the West, is probably more promising, partly because it was developed by the sides, the experts express their opinion, stressing, however, that it is not clear how Moscow will react if this happens.
On the other hand, according to the international crisis group, although the sides are trying to work out a joint project, their approaches are still very far from each other.
All cards are in Baku's hands, and Azerbaijan would benefit more from a possible deal, especially in terms of military and foreign policy, than if it tried to achieve these goals militarily, experts say, warning that the danger is that negotiations will lead nowhere, and either another military conflict will destroy the ways sponsored by both Moscow and the West, and Azerbaijan will take what it can by force.
