The term "peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan" is deceptive, as it is only a framework agreement with general words, maybe one page, which will become the basis for negotiations, Thomas de Waal, a leading researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, an expert on the Karabakh conflict, told NEWS.am on the Power Factor program.

According to him, everything depends on Moscow and Baku.

He suggested that there are behind-the-scenes negotiations going on, about which there is little information.

Of course, there are calls from the West to unblock the road in the Lachin corridor, but everything depends on Baku's demands to Nagorno-Karabakh and above all to Russia, he said. There are claims of Azerbaijan about the regime and transparency of the road. De Waal thinks that this issue can be solved, but there is a more ambitious agenda of Aliyev on various issues. There is a common understanding that Nagorno-Karabakh will not become an independent state, that this issue is already closed by war 2020, this is the end of the principles of the OSCE Minsk Group, the expert noted. In the EU there was an understanding that such an agreement could be the beginning of a process in which the so-called rights and guarantees of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh would be discussed, maybe what is meant is the replacement of the Russian mission with an international mission with guarantees from Baku in the issue of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, he said.

According to De Waal, in the current situation this is not possible, because a framework agreement is possible in an atmosphere of good will. In addition, the question of which countries can assume the role of an international mission in Nagorno-Karabakh is a key and complicated one.  An international mission is the logical solution to the issue, but he does not see resources at the moment, and Baku does not want it. There was a small hope in Brussels that during the bilateral meetings between Aliyev and Pashinyan it was possible to come to this and in this situation, maybe the Armenians will make concessions regarding the transport communication with Nakhijevan. The only leverage Armenians have left is the refusal to provide it, he said. In Brussels, they were close to an agreement. De Waal thinks there were no problems of principle there, but the Armenian side is afraid that if they agree, their last card will be played.

Pashinyan agrees that Nagorno-Karabakh will not secede from Azerbaijan, but the issue of status and, more importantly, security guarantees will be decided in the future.

Aliyev, as in 2020, chose the moment, thinking that the world is preoccupied with other issues, in this case Ukraine, that Russia has weakened and both it and the West do not have the resources to pay enough attention to what is happening around Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev is also concerned about the future departure of his most important ally, Erdogan. This explains the reasons why crises are happening now, the expert noted.