If we compare with the previous elections, of course, Erdogan's positions have weakened; but it can also be noted that he still managed to get more votes than the leader of the opposition, Kilicdaroglu, Armenian academician and turkologist Ruben Safrastyan told Armenian News-NEWS.am, regarding the results of Sunday’s presidential election in Turkey.
"Besides, the existence of the second round [of the presidential election] in Turkey proves that this time Turkey's political forces are closer to each other in terms of their ratings. This, in turn, proves that the Turkish society is quite polarized during the years of [incumbent] Erdogan's rule, in contrast to the previous period.
"Apparently, Erdogan will manage to overcome the 51 percent [threshold in the presidential runoff] because in fact Erdogan needs to get 1-1.5 percent more votes. And he can easily get that if we take into account that the third participant in the elections, [Sinan] Ogan, is a person with clear pan-Turkist, extreme nationalist views, he is an Azerbaijani by nationality, and it is clear that he will call on his supporters to support Erdogan [in the presidential runoff election]," Safrastyan said.
Although the turkologist did not rule out that the opposition in Turkey could take some actions, he considers it unlikely—and based on several circumstances.
"Let's start with the fact that Kilicdaroglu is a calm person, it is no coincidence that he is called the ‘Turkish Gandhi;’ that is, he does not support violence in his views. If we compare [him] with Erdogan, the difference is obvious.
“On the other hand, the opposition does not have such resources to be able to bring a large number of people to the streets.
“The third circumstance is that the opposition is more closely connected with the Americans, and the most important thing for the US is that there should be a stable situation in Turkey, taking into account Turkey's geographical position and importance as an ally of the US, especially in the Middle East.
"Taking into account these circumstances, it can be said with greater probability that there will be no mass uprisings and disagreements, especially since Erdogan has already won [in the first round] and is likely to win in the second round; he also is not interested in mass actions at all." said Safrastyan.
According to him, in the event of Erdogan's victory in the presidential runoff, Turkey's regional policy will generally continue in the same way.
"Strategically, Turkey will continue the political line it had adopted under Erdogan's leadership in the coming years; that is, while remaining a strategic ally of the US and the EU, it will also try to get benefits from certain cooperation with Russia—which we see.
"The [Turkish] policy related to Armenia will not only remain the same, but Turkey may take a tougher stance because the pressure on Armenia is increasing. In the coming years, it will be important for Turkey to achieve its strategic goal in the region; that is, to become a center of power in the South Caucasus by pushing Russia out. And to achieve that goal, Turkey needs to weaken Armenia as much as possible, use Azerbaijan's maximalist approaches, incite against Armenia, Artsakh [(Nagorno-Karabakh)]," said Safrastyan.
Taking the aforesaid into account, according to the turkologist, we Turkey is expected to take a tougher stance towards Armenia.
"Recent events related to the [unveiling of the] statue of [Operation] Nemesis [in Yerevan]; we see that with the step that Turkey took by closing its airspace [to Armenian aircraft flying to third countries], it is already trying to enter the field of our historical recollection, to change some parts of it in favor of Turkey, to erase from our historical recollection the parts they don't like. I believe that such steps will be continued by Turkey," said Safrastyan.
