YEREVAN. – The sociologists are quick to present to Armenia’s body politic their predictions for the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections. And in this context, sociologists Aharon Adibekyan and Gevorg Poghosyan are more active.
In line with Adibekyan’s recent predictions, as a result of the elections the political parties will rate as follows: The currently ruling coalition’s Republican Party of Armenia (RPA): 16 percent; the coalition’s Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP): 14.7 percent; the opposition bloc Armenian National Congress (ANC): 3.5 percent; parliamentary opposition ARF Dashnaktsutyun Party: 2.5 percent; the coalition’s Rule of Law Party (RLP): 2.1 percent; parliamentary opposition Heritage Party: 2.1 percent, and the opposition Free Democrats Party: 0.1 percent. As per Adibekyan, RPA, PAP, ANC, ARF, Heritage, and RLP will gain parliamentary seats. And the results of the elections will be determined by the result of the competition between RPA and PAP.
According to Gevorg Poghosyan, RPA will occupy first place in the elections, PAP will come in second, and ANC will be third. And these three forces together will receive 75 percent of the total votes. Poghosyan, however, added that no political party will get more than 50 percent of the ballots. After the aforementioned political forces, ARF and Heritage plus RLP will have a chance to receive parliamentary seats. In Gevorg Poghosyan’s words, the voter turnout is usually more during the presidential elections than the parliamentary ones. Also, civic activism has now grown among Armenia’s youth. According to him, the parliamentary elections will be difficult, with predictable results but with unexpected events. He added that the majority of the voters believe the elections will not be fair. But at the same time, as per Poghosyan, Armenia’s voters have become more demanding, and nowadays they are more critical toward the authorities.
And as for RPA MP Karen Avagyan, “these numbers are close to the true picture, but they cannot be absolute numbers. The real numbers will come in.”
The opposition members, on the other hand, do not consider these public opinion polls to be serious, and they note that these surveys are likewise tools in the hands of the authorities.
