Wide-scale war activities between the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict sides are impossible at the moment, a senior associate in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment Thomas de Waal said in an interview with CivilNetTV.
He stressed that military forces are under the serious political control. Despite shots by snipers, no heavy machinery is used, and it may be so in case of political decision. At the moment, resumption of war is not within the interests of both sides. Armenia is not interested in war as it has everything what it needs as a matter of fact, while Azerbaijan does not war as it runs a process of enriching and building army.
In addition, all the countries of the region expect elections in the coming years, and the leaders are focused on securing domestic capital and are more careful in achieving agreement with neighboring states.
Elections are not a stimulus to unleash war, especially in case of Armenia, which has more dynamic domestic policy, as compared to Azerbaijan and Karabakh.
“Another problem is Iran. In case of deterioration of tension around Iran, the latter may provoke Azerbaijan,” de Waal said adding on the other hand, Karabakh-Armenians, though little in number, but brave enough may desire small war to bring Azerbaijan into senses.