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Armenia is ideally situated to benefit from Russia's ban on Western foodstuffs, Chris Weafer, a founding partner at Moscow-based Macro-Advisory consultancy, told Armenia News – NEWS.am in an emailed comment.

This is because the Kremlin would very much like to have the country join the Eurasian Union rather than to drift closer to Europe. Increasing economic ties via a higher volume of food imports is one way to achieve that, he told. Russia is also expected to encourage more imports from within the C.I.S. countries “so as to better consolidate its economic and political relationships in its so-called near abroad”, the expert added.

The same type of policy will be applied – or is already in progress – to the states, with which Russian authorities want to build a closer long-term relationship, including large emerging markets.

“We already know that imports are being sourced from Latin America as part of the initiative,” the analyst told.

One of the rationales for that strategy is the fact that Russia will not be able to move to self-sufficiency in food: moving to self-sufficiency will take many years, at best.

“The industry has suffered a lack of investment and a loss of skilled workers for more than two decades. It has structural and efficiency problems which will not solved easily or quickly,” Weafer told.

That's why Russia will try to reap the best possible advantage in choosing its supply mix. There will also be room for more reliable food sources from countries deemed to be part of Russia’s area of special interest, e.g. the Eurasian Union countries, the exert added.

This does not mean that increasing local production is off the agenda.

“Longer term the government will use this crisis to try and boost investment into the agriculture and food production sectors. President Putin has been complaining for many years that Russia should be more self-sufficient in key areas such as food and medicine consumption,” the analyst remarked.

Longer term the government will use the recent crisis in trade relations to try and boost investment into the agriculture and food production sectors, he concluded.

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