NEWS.am has received a statement issued by the Council of the Trabzon-Ardvin-Batum Association.

Below is an abridged translation of the statement.

“The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has entered a new stage. The name of the stage is the intellectual and nervous struggle over Lower Karabakh.

”Azerbaijan is most enthusiastic over the fact that the first of the Principles of Nagorno-Karabakh settlement published in July 10 is the return of the territories round Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

“We do not think it is worth discussing the advisability of inadvisability of returning the territories to the aggressor that unleashed a war in 1991. Far less worthy are any talks about configurations of such a return (five regions now, with two later, etc…). The consequences of such a return – disastrous for the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process – are clear and can be summed up as follows: Azerbaijan will spur its old territorial ambitions and have new ones. The opposite side is openly discussing plans to unite ‘one nation, but two states’ after the anticipated capture of Zangezur.

”Our aim is to tell the reader about two possible ways of developments is case any decision on the Lower Karabakh is made.

“For some reason, the Armenian expert community is not in the habit of discussing these alternative ways. May be they take it for granted, but it must be discussed.

”Way one: return of Lower Karabakh regions to Azerbaijan

In this case, the return of only a few regions is impossible. If even part of a region is returned, nothing will prevent the return of all the other regions. If there is no obstacle to the return of all the regions, Nagorno-Karabakh will return to the ‘borders’ of 1988, when everything started. The Armenian side will return to the enclave status of Nagorno-Karabakh, with the Lachin corridor not to play any essential role: land communication between Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh will be as insecure as it was 20 years ago. The aforementioned will demonstrate to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh the necessity for forming one state named Republic of Armenia… In other words, uniting with Armenia will be the only guarantee of Nagorno-Karabakh’s security… For the Armenian side, the situation of 1988 will then seem much better than he one 20 years later. Who will concern himself with the results of a referendum held on December 10, 1991, wth the Nagorno-Karabakh Constitution of 2006, its 20-year-long de factor independent statehood, and with many other things. The present neither-peace-nor-war situation will be replaced by a neither-statehood-nor-peace one. The probability of a new war will be even higher, and Artsakh’s weaker statehood will make for that process. Both the region and the entire world will view the Armenian statehood as not serious and impotent in the South Caucasus and the Armenians throughout the world as a socially and politically degrading nation. It means a split within the Armenian society, which will throw it decades back in accomplishing national tasks.

“Way two: The adoption of a declaration on its statehood by the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) within its present-day borders, which will be a step forward as compared with Article 142 of the NKR Constitution… In that case, the preceding years of neither war nor peace will be a necessary stage of the NKR people’s consistent struggle for its statehood. The Armenian side will continue its way to two states in the South Caucasus – within the borders that will effectively guarantee their statehood. In hat case, legal acts will be consistently framed and respected. The key external factors in the Nagoro-Karabakh peace process will finally understand the Armenian side’s intention and the fact that these intentions doe not run counter to their long-term foreign-policy interests”

Azerbaijan’s only argument for the inevitability of return of Lower Karabakh to it is as follows: Armenians will not be able to stand the external pressure as they have no foreign policy resources. In fact, no one is willing to pressure Armenians nor anyone has necessary resources to pressure the Armenian side into making any steps. We declare it with all responsibility on the basis of contacts with experts representing all the OSCE MG Co-Chairing countries, officials of the countries a well as of the key EU member-states having to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. We expect the Armenian side to make fundamental decisions on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and all the public and political forces to have one and the same position on the issue.

Some may dislike this alternative, but it is an alternative to a national disaster."