The Russian Government’s decision to ban grain export and the resultant excitement affected both Armenia and its grain importer neighbors, except for Iran.
Specifically, Turkey, the world’s sixth largest grain producer, imports grain from Russia. A total of 9m hectares are under grain there - more than in Australia and Canada. However, our neighbors are the world’s biggest bread consumers: each Turkish citizen consumes 230 kg of bread yearly against 50 kg per capita in Europe. It is noteworthy that, in the first half of 2010, Turkey exported wheat from Russia at $210 per ton, and Armenia paid U.S. $250 per ton. Turkish Minister of Agriculture Mehmet Mehdi Eker stated that the country’s grain reserves currently total 2.2m tons, which rules out any deficit.
Georgia makes up its substantial grain deficit by importing grain. However, the situation in Georgia is worse than in Armenia. That country’s annual consumption totals 800,000 tons, with imports constituting 85% of the amount. Armenia’s self-sufficiency is about 35%. Although Russia and Georgia severed their diplomatic relations, Russia had been a major grain exporter to Georgia before the ban was imposed. Georgia imports grain from Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Like Armenia, Georgia elaborated a grain output expansion program to be able to satisfy 50% of its demand. Larger areas are under grain in Georgia than in Armenia – about 132,000 hectares. However, the yield is lower. In 2008-2009, grain yield totaled 180-190 thousand tons in Georgia against more than 200,000 tons in Armenia. On the other hand, by August 6, in contrast to their Yerevan counterparts, Tbilisi bread-making plants had not raised the bread price. Georgian mass media reported uncleared grain was sold at U.S. $260 per ton at the Poti port.
The situation is quite different in Azerbaijan. This year that country has reduced areas under grain by almost 20 times against last year. This January-May, Azerbaijan imported about 425,000 tons of grain at U.S. $205 per ton. Azerbaijan is likely to suffer from the global grain crisis most of all, as it has to import another 600,000 tons of grain.
Iran is a major crops producer. That country has made an unprecedented step as well. The Government set a 46% tax on grain import to protect the local producers. Last year Iran registered 100% grain self-sufficiency. This year the country has started exporting grain to the neighboring Arab states. A high grain yield, about 15m tons, is expected in Iran this year. A total of 2m tons are likely to be exported.
